Great read on why different polls generate different results

[Deminpenn]

The latest F&M Pennsylvania (formerly Keystone Poll) is out. It has both Fetterman and Shapiro up, but the more interesting read is about "undecided voters" and how the way different polls ask questions affects that number.

Well worth the read: https://www.getrevue.co/profile/fandmpoll/issues/undecided-voters-1348873?utm_campaign=Franklin%20%26%20Marshall%20College%20Poll&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter

[NoMoreRepugs]

1. If you are undecided or favor a snake oil salesman over a dedicated public servant you are

a dipshit dumbfuck, that’s the result of my poll.

[Deminpenn]

2. This is more than that

It explains the different methods pollsters use and why the "horse race" numbers differ.

It's well worth taking the time to read.

[NoMoreRepugs]

4. I did read it, just reporting poll results from my kitchen table.

[Deminpenn]

3. F&M Sept poll results

Here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I-bWspYxBv4iiwV3SUPSkq8pS2DUw8VR/view

Fetterman up 42-37 and 45-42 when "leaners" are allocated.
Shapiro up 47-30 and 51-37 when "leaners" are allocated.

However, if you compare the current results with the August poll and also with the historical results, the race appears to be quite stable.

[MyMission]

5. I might reply that I'm undecided,

Especially when I get a lot of polls, and depending on how the questions are asked. I often don't want to tell them how I'm voting.

I am and always vote the democratic ticket, but I am a registered independent so I get a lot of surveys on this.

I suspect there are many like me, who don't want to divulge, and will vote Dem.
Election results are what matters, not polls.

If the questions are thoughtful and comprehensive I do tend to answer. Very few polls are.
This was a good article.

[Deminpenn]

6. The last two pages contain each candidates support by region

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LjMQTRxDxoEf9L18oVKfn6YH1lfquZSV/view

Fetterman is getting 59% in Phila/SE region and 56% in SW Pa. Given that SW Pa usually votes at a higher percentage than other regions of the state, that means it has more impact than its raw population numbers suggest it has.

[FakeNoose]

7. Do they take into consideration the lies that come out of Repukes' mouths?

For example Repukes get a real kick out of lying to the pollsters, just to mess up the polls. Another thing they love to do is register as a D voter just to mess with our primaries. They know they're going to vote R in the general election, there was never a question about that. They just try to defeat the best D candidates before they can win the nomination.

Polls never ask things like, who did you vote for in the recent primary... Or, how often have you crossed party lines and voted for another Party's candidate... etc. They don't disqualify the liars and line-jumpers.

When crap like this has been happening for the last 30+ years, how can anyone take these polls seriously?

[yortsed snacilbuper]

8. "how can anyone take these polls seriously?"

Good question!

[Deminpenn]

10. F&M is a good poll

Terry Madonna is a native Pennsylvania and has been teaching and studying Pennsylvania for decades. He is known as the "Dean of Pennsylvania politics" for a reason. He and his colleague Berwood Yost have been polling Pennsylvania for years.

This poll, imho, is the gold standard of PA polling. It is the most transparent poll I've ever seen putting all the data including marginal frequencies and its methodology out publically for review. It also shows historical trends, not just over months, but years.

Probably the second best poll is Muhlenberg run by Chris Borick.

[Deminpenn]

9. Another interesting tidbit from this poll

is the shrinking number of Rs who say they are "Trump Republicans". This number has consistently dropped over the historical timeline of this particular poll question.