PA post-election thoughts

[Deminpenn]

It looks like it was a good night for PA Dems. Shapiro and Fetterman both won and their margins of victory should rise as all the mailed ballots are counted.

In my CD, Dem Chris Deluzio defeated Jeremy Schaffer who has conceded. This keeps PA-17 in Dem hands after Dem Conor Lamb decided to run for Senate then lost to Fetterman in the Dem primary. Rs probably saw this seat as their best chance for a pick up given the increasingly R swing in western PA. I think the congressional split will be 9D-8R since PA lost a seat.

There was a fair amount of ticket splitting with Rs likely voting for Shapiro Gov and Oz senate.

The mailed in ballots seem to be skewed heavily toward Dems. In Beaver County, the elections division has not yet posted the mailed ballot results. Oz will still win here, but the margin will be 5-7k votes closer. Shapiro is trailing Mastriano, but there are enough outstanding mailed ballots that he could eke out a win.

It's possible with the 2020 legislative redistricting that Dems could win the state house. At the very least they'll cut into the Rs 20 seat advantage that was achieved via major partisan gerry-mandering and undone to a decent degree by the 2020 legislative redistricting commission. I haven't looked at the state senate, but since the districts changed little in redistricting, it will probably remain a 28-22 or so R advantage. If the state legislature is split or even if the Rs keep both chambers but their advantage is reduced, we probably won't see their crazier ideas get as much traction.

Election day R turnout did not match 2020. In my precinct, it was lower 50s%. Overall turnout will be higher once the mailed ballots are counted, but it seems like just the usual suspects showed up to the polls, not them + the not-the-usual-suspects. I think it does give more credibility to the thesis that Trump himself on the ballot is what pulls out the unlikely type voters.

After all the votes are counted, I'd like to see SecDef Austin recall both Mastriano and Perry to service and courtmartial them under whatever the UCMJ equivalent of seditious conspiracy is. There's no doubt these two conspired to overthrow the elected government of the US.

[Duncanpup]

1. Biglerville pa area here

Yes recall perry and mastriano.

[Deminpenn]

2. Both are retired Army officers

It's my understanding that retired military can be recalled to active duty any time. But maybe someone can confirm that.

[Duncanpup]

4. I know they violated the oath

We swore upon enlistment they need to be prosecuted.

[Joe Cool]

3. I just posted these comments in another thread.

An incomplete summary of what I posted on DU before the election:

1) I kept saying that I had never seen so many signs for Democratic candidates in red areas of western Pennsylvania as I saw this year. The eye test told me Fetterman and Shapiro were going to do well. If not for the stroke, Fetterman wins by at last 5 points (currently 3ish).

2) The missing Trump voter showed up in the results. Or you might say didn't show up.
Another point I kept making on DU was how those who had Trump signs (and some of those having other GOP signs) in 2016 and 2020 didn't have any signs this year. They might have voted for Trump and other Republicans as a residual effect but they didn't vote this year because Trump was not on the ballot nor in office.
Two other Trump-related factors played a role in the missing Trump voter: COVID and 1/6. The difference between Republican and Democratic COVID deaths is not necessarily that significant in terms of the total US population but take tens of thousands of hardcore supporters out of the population who are now dead and that has a ripple effect aside from their missing votes. Although it currently numbers 928, many arrested 1/6ers, who are hardcore Trump supporters, are either in jail, on probation, waiting for sentencing, and/or waiting for trial. They might have been not able to vote due to incarceration or they just want to keep their head down and not draw attention to themselves. 1/6ers who have yet to be arrested might feel the same way in knowing that their chances to be arrested drastically increase if they continue to draw attention to themselves by opening campaigning for Republicans. This number might not be that large, but it has residual effects.

3) The Republican leaning polls were obvious BS from the get go.

4) Finally, the media and pundits who kept saying since November 2020 the GOP was going to sweep this year because that is what normally happens during midterms could never admit that might not be the case, especially with the abortion issue looming so large. They kept trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy instead of actually paying attention to what was happening on the ground. The pundits should have declared all bets off once the Dobbs decision came down but they either couldn't or didn't vacillate from their predictions.

[gab13by13]

5. I don't see Democrats taking back the state houses.

Every year for the past 20 years Democrats have outvoted Republicans in Pa. and yet Republicans have gained seats.

I had to do a write in for my district, including the primary.

The next redistricting will be 2030.

[livetohike]

6. Thanks! Great analysis. Can't wait to see the final

numbers and Trump’s sad face over Oz and Mastriano. I’m up in Jefferson County. Lots of trips down to your CD as my m-i-l lived there. She passed in Sept so we’re working on her house. Saw many Deluzio signs in her neighborhood. Glad he won 🙂.

[Freddie]

7. Fitzpatrick and my state "rep" both won 🤬

Otherwise I’m delighted with PA. People around here must have split tickets, voted for Shapiro and Fetterman but those execrable R’s down the ballot. Looks like RWNJs pretending to be moderate is still working.