Comparing the results of the 2 special elections in HD35 and SD36
There's been a lot of chat about what, if anything, these two special elections mean for Dems and Rs going forward.
I think it might be a mistake to brush them off as not meaning much because they were special, not regular, elections.
Just for fun, looked at some numbers of both elections for comparison.
HD 35 has 43,026 RVs. Of those, 26,105 D/10,679 R/4,405 I/ 1.837 O. RVs percentage is 61% D, 25% R,10% I, 4% other.
The results very closely matched the partisan split. Goughnour, the D, got 63% and Davis, the R, got 35%, libertarian got 1.5%. Mail ballots (2,989) made up just under 28% of all ballots cast. The mail in share of total (election day + mail) votes was D 35.9%, R 13.1% and L 33.1%
Turnout was 10.714 of 43,025 or 25%. This is the classic urban, heavily Dem district low turnout election. The result was so well known in advance that the Rs, despite being in a 101-101 tie with Dems in the state house, conceded that McClinton would continue as Speaker by withdrawing their candidate after the first vote for Speaker..
SD 36 has 184,569 RVs. Of thoes, 55,243 D/97,834 R/22,892 I/8.597 O. RV percentage is 30% D, 53% R, 12% I, 4.6% other. Unlike in HD35, the results did not mirror the partisan RV breakdown. The mail ballot percentage breakdown was almost exactly the same as in HD35, Dem got 33% of his total votes by mail, R got 13.4% of their total vote by mail and libertarian got 36% of his total vote by mail.
Turnout was 28% (51,900/184,569). This is better than in HD35, but still classic special election turnout in a heavily R, mostly rural district. That this result did not mirror the partisan RV breakdown is significant. If all RVs had turned out at the same 28% rate, they would have won 55-45 even if 100% of IND voters had voted for the Dem. Usually in elections, roughly the same percent of R and D partisans vote for a candidate not of their own party, so I think it's fair to say that Ds had a net gain of votes from this kind of exchange. What this all tells me is that Rs aren't holding their base as well are losing INDs and that Dems are more engaged than usual.