Looking at the Virginia Health Department Covid contact tracing data this morning.

[Yonnie3]

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-contact-tracing/

I may be misunderstanding, but the data seems to show it is not going so well.

51.1 Percent of Cases Interviewed by VDH
43.6 Percent of Cases Who Provided Close Contacts
92.0 Percent of Contacts Interviewed by VDH

Stringing that all together, I calculate that there is a 20.5% chance that you will be contacted by them if you were in contact with a known positive. Factor in that there are an unknown number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic case that are not tested, it is actually even worse. I suppose some people who will not cooperate with VDH are informing their contacts, so maybe it is not quite so bad.

The vaccines were tested and tracked for the prevention of serious illness, not prevention of the infection. I read that in Israel they are doing rigorous contract tracing and testing of contacts and are saying the mRNA vaccine seems to be at about 65% effective in preventing infections.

I remain cautious in my interactions.

[JudyM]

1. Saw that data out of Israel... breakthrough vaccines are not so rare. Last night's Sox-Yankees game

was canned due to breakthrough infections, just one example. CDC’s only tracking those that result in hospitalizations.
Couple that with the New Zealand research showing that Delta is transmissible with mere “fleeting contact” and it seems we might be taking this too lightly. Maybe that’s why the surgeon general just called for an end to media misrepresentation about Covid. https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142769877

Haven’t found any research yet on whether breakthroughs increase with age but that’s likely, so how protected, actually, are vaccinated folks over 50/60/70 etc?

Thanks for posting this, Yonnie. Still wearing a mask, it ain’t over.

[Yonnie3]

2. I think the emphasis in the vaccine messaging has been misplaced

The emphasis should be about not dying or getting seriously ill with lifelong repercussions. Instead a lot is about going without masks, opening the economy (it was never closed), getting your hair done, eating out, etc.

[JudyM]

4. Agreed. It's almost a "let's party" message.

[SheltieLover]

5. I believe the CDC is tracking breakthroughs, just not reporting it!

Israel is planning to start 3rd Pfizers to boost immunity in the elderly & others who are vulnerable.

Sadly, asymptomatic & mild cases can & often do result in long-haul.

Please be safe! 😷👍

[JudyM]

6. Totally, long-haul is a serious element in this picture.

Truly remain stunned at so many people’s hubris.

[SheltieLover]

7. Absolutely!

Stay safe! 😷

[Yonnie3]

8. Virginia has data on breakthroughs

Last edited Sat Jul 17, 2021, 05:40 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/

From January 21 through July 9
Breakthrough cases are 0.026% in fully vaccinated.
Deaths in fully vaccinated are 0.0004%
Hospitalization 0.0019% - this data is a bit uncertain

There may be a lot more asymptomatic or mild cases out there.

[SheltieLover]

9. Ty!

[underpants]

3. I still mask up inside anywhere other than home

I’ve never worn shoes inside my house anyway.