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UVA Covid Modeling
Governor Northam mentioned a UVa Model at his presser. Here is what I found about it.
A PDF file of methods and results are here: https://covid19.biocomplexity.virginia.edu/sites/covid19.biocomplexity/files/COVID-19-UVA-MODEL-FINDINGS-Apr13-2020-FINAL%20PRESS.pdf
UVa uses five different levels of mitigation ranging from none to a "pause" lasting until June tenth and breaks Virginia up in to six regions.
Worst case (unmitigated) shows Late April to Mid May for cases to exceed surge capacity and the best case with very effective measures shows Mid July to Late August. The peaks for the best case of social distancing are in August for most regions of Virginia. Far Southwestern Virginia is quite different from Northern Virginia.