Canada Home Prices See Record Drop as High Rates Hit Buyers

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Bloomberg

Canada Home Prices See Record Drop as High Rates Hit Buyers

Ari Altstedter
Mon, January 16, 2023 at 8:33 AM PST

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian home prices fell by the most on record in 2022, as rapidly rising interest rates forced a market adjustment that may have further to go. ... The country’s benchmark home price fell 1.6% in December to C$730,600, bringing the total decrease since February’s peak to 13.2%, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

The decline was the biggest peak-to-trough falloff since the group started compiling the data in 2005. Last year also saw the biggest price decline for a calendar year since records began, with a 7.5% drop overall.

With the economy in danger of entering a recession, and the Bank of Canada warning of more rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, the housing market may face continued pressure in the coming months.

A record number of buyers used floating-rate debt for purchases during Canada’s pandemic-era real estate boom, and those borrowers may come under increasing strain if mortgage costs remain high. Job losses from an economic slowdown also would make it harder for people to keep up with loan payments and stay in their homes. ... Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict Canada will enter a recession in the first part of this year.

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[Fiendish Thingy]

1. This is just the beginning...

Rate hikes usually take 12-18 months to affect the housing market, so this spring will be ground zero.

Sales volume is down from 20-40% depending on the region and category (condos vs. SFD); many high end homes in Vancouver and Toronto have seen price cuts of 20% or more and still aren’t selling. Listings have been scarce because recalcitrant sellers think they can wait out the market, but sales due to death, divorce, downsizing and moves for work will eventually push prices down.

Note to those unfamiliar with Canadian real estate:
the Canadian government insures a good portion of mortgages by first time buyers, which works in sellers’ favour when rates are low, however…the government also requires all buyers to pass a “stress test” showing they can still make payments at rates 2% over prime, which now means buyers have to qualify at 7-7.5%, even though their mortgage is only 5%…