Pierre Poilievre blaming Trudeau for real estate inflation. Wrong. That

[applegrove]

is hedge funds and foreign speculation. Trudeau has legislated for houses to be used as homes not investment opportunities for rich people.

[TreasonousBastard]

1. Politicians are always blaming someone-- that's what they do...

much easier to assign blame than fix things.

Inflation is simply too much money for things to be bought. That part is easy-- what to do about it not so much.

[canuckledragger]

2. That's what the CPC does.

They always attack and try to blame someone for whatever they're trying to divide people with.

In all my 47 years I've yet to see them actually offer something positive. All I can remember out of them is blame, blame, blame, cut, cut, cut. Never any real plans that actually help those that aren't millionaires/billionaires.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. It's the government (CHMC) insuring mortgages

If lenders were required to take on 100% of the risk, millions of buyers wouldn’t qualify for mortgages at current prices, and sellers would have to accept lower prices, or the market would freeze (it wouldn’t , because all those empty condos owned by Canadian speculators would be sold, or seized by the lenders and sold, at rock bottom prices)

Foreign speculation only accounts for 5-7% of the market, at least in the Vancouver area, so isn’t having much direct effect on prices in say, Chilliwack or Nanaimo. The public’s acceptance of the mythology surrounding foreign buyers is definitely affecting the market psychology , stirring FOMO, bidding wars and irrational decisions.

Trudeau could create lots of affordable housing just by eliminating the CHMC, but that would certainly piss off his big donors in the FIRE industry.

[applegrove]

4. 5 to 7% is huge. Plus hedge funds looking for a place to invest money.

Hedge funds have messed up local housing markets around the world. Wow. I don't think I've ever met anyone who was against the CMHC.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. 5-7% foreign buyers vs 95% local buyers?

That’s why I said foreign buyers affect the market psychology , but it’s the purchases by local Canadians that set the actual market value.

In 2018-19, when the OFSI increased the stress test for low down payment, higher risk buyers, all it took was BOC/Fed rates to nudge up slightly, and housing sales volumes (in BC/Metro Van/Lower Mainland) dropped 30-50% , depending on area and housing type (strata vs SFD), while prices dropped 15-25%. Listings numbers were average to above average, shifting the market to a buyer’s market for the first time in ages (that’s when we bought our home on the island).

During that time, the percentage of those foreign speculators paying cash for leaky Vancouver condos and Richmond McMansions didn’t drop significantly, but the number of local buyers did, and hence, prices overall dropped as well.

Then, of course, COVID happened, rates dropped to near zero, listing plummeted, and FOMO took over once again.

If lenders assumed 100% of the risk, they would implement stress tests much stricter than OFSI, and as a result, fewer buyers would qualify at current prices (although prices have been dropping as rates have risen).

The FIRE industry is a much bigger portion of Canadian GDP than in the US (same for fossil fuels), and so they have an outsized influence on Canadian politics.

The FIRE industry has largely succeeded in redefining “affordable” as how much debt a buyer can qualify for, rather than a sensible ration between median incomes and median housing prices (usually defined as housing that costs 3-4 times the median annual income, not 12+ x annual income, as in Metro Van)