Canada
Related: About this forumLiberals 29.9; Conservatives 29.8; NDP 19.?; Bloq 3.?..... Yeah baby.
Liberals are on the rise.
ColinC
(10,711 posts)Vs the chances of the liberals and ndp forming a coalition?
applegrove
(123,157 posts)gets offered to become the government. They always say yes. We are not Italy or Israel where coalitions form and break apart to see who can make a majority using multiple parties and then form government there. That never happens in Canada. After the party with the plurality is government they can make deals with other parties on legislation to come to make their government more stable. If they go it alone and/or lose something big like a budget bill their government has failed and they have to call an election.
Last election the Conservatives had the majority of the votes but not the majority of the seats so Trudeau got the plurality and had a minority government. He was doing well on covid and the poll numbers showed a Liberal majority so he called an election this August. All the other parties called it a power grab (shocking for someone in politics I know). Trudeau's numbers went down. Conservatives pretended to be liberal. Yesterday the Conservatives were ahead. But O'Toole the Conservative leader has been in a bubble and when out of the bubble would not answer questions. Trudeau is always open to talk about anything. The first French debate was Thursday. Trudeau is a great debater. The Bloq guy Blanchette, Quebec Independence party, did not do so well which helps Trudeau win more seats in that province. And Quebec has a lot of seats. O'Toole's french was not great and he was not as great a debater as Trudeau. So that helps Trudeau. Now O'Toole has been caught in another bit of phoniness. He claimed to be for banning automatic guns but was purposely and slyly leaving out semi-automatic guns, which have been used two of the worst spree shootings in Canada. Gun crime has been rising in Quebec. This too will help Trudeau tomorrow when O'Toole explains himself once again. And he said he'd not have a handgun ban which pisses off cities.
tirebiter
(2,587 posts)Who what when where?
applegrove
(123,157 posts)wins the election. Too early to tell but alot of Conservative votes are heavily concentrated in Alberta so that means their high popularity will not always garner them a plurality of seats. Usually the winning party has popularity in the 30s. High 30s for a majority.
Hiawatha Pete
(1,962 posts)Seat proj as of sep 4:
143 LIB
129 CON
38 NDP
https://calculatedpolitics.ca/projection/canadian-federal-election/#1613342571207-b57a6991-2530