Tories could come sixth in European elections, officials fear

[Eugene]

Source: The Guardian

Tories could come sixth in European elections, officials fear

Candidates say the party is ‘almost in denial’ over vote and will not publish manifesto

Rowena Mason and Rajeev Syal
Thu 9 May 2019 19.04 BST Last modified on Thu 9 May 2019 23.21 BST

Conservative officials fear the party could come sixth in the European elections, with their support plummeting to single digits.

Candidates running in the election said the party was “almost in denial” that the poll was happening and continued to insist they would not need to take up their seats in the European parliament, despite fading prospects for a cross-party deal with Labour that would enable Brexit to happen before 2 July.

The fears of a dismal performance have been stoked by the fact that the party plans to spend no money on candidate campaigning, will not publish a manifesto and is refusing to hold a launch.

One MEP said candidates were funding their campaigns out of their own pockets, unlike previous years when there was a central pot of funding available. They have been told they are allowed to have their own regional manifestos, but many are not bothering, and there will be no central party manifesto.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/09/tories-fear-dismal-results-in-european-elections-meps-say

[Tiggeroshii]

1. Nice

As long as the UKIP and far right dont fill the void

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. This would mean coming behind UKIP

I doubt it'll go that far. The Brexit Party (ie Nigel Farage and followers)are odds-on favourites to get the largest vote (ugh), and Labour 2nd. At the moment the Tories are 3rd, but dropping; it's quite possible they'll end up behind the Lib Dems in total votes (but maybe not in terms of seats won - regional differences might affect that). Then we have the Greens, Change UK (the new party of pro-EU ex-Tory and Labour MPs - no party organisation, so they may well fail) and UKIP - the increasingly far-right group, rebranding as an anti-Muslim movement like the German AfD.

The desertion of UKIP is one good point in all this, even if Brexit Party is only a little better. But I doubt the Tories will drop below 4th. A poll I saw showed many voting for Brexit Party in this election intend to go back to the Tories in a general election - this is a special issue vote.

[T_i_B]

3. Whilst this reeks of expectation management...

….a major problem the Tories have is that many of their grassroots supporters are hacked off at the way the project to leave the EU has gone and are refusing to take part in their election campaign. Which is a tacit endorsement for Farage's lot.

https://www.derbyshiretimes.co.uk/news/politics/derbyshire-tories-refuse-to-take-part-in-european-elections-because-of-brexit-delay-1-9725372

Tories at Derbyshire County Council have declared they will not take part in the forthcoming European elections in protest over the fact Britain has not yet left the EU.

They have also said they will not support party colleagues standing as MEP candidates.

Conservatives at the county council believe the election in May 'should not be happening' and will therefore withdraw their involvement in the campaign process - they are effectively going on strike.

Barry Lewis, who has led the Derbyshire authority since May 2017, said he had already informed party chairman Brandon Lewis of the decision, which followed overwhelming support from his colleagues.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Down to 4th in the latest poll

In the most striking sign to date of surging support for Farage, the poll suggests more than a third of voters will back him on 23 May. It puts his party on 34% of the vote, with less than a fortnight before the election takes place.

The poll suggests support for the Conservatives has collapsed amid the Brexit uncertainty, with Theresa May’s party on just 11%. Labour is a distant second, on 21%. The Lib Dems perform the best of any of the openly anti-Brexit parties, one point ahead of the Tories on 12% of the vote.
...
The Conservatives are now only narrowly ahead of the Brexit party when voters are asked who they would vote for at a general election. The Tories are on 22% support, down 4% on a fortnight ago, with the Brexit party on 21% backing. Labour leads on 28%, but is down five points on the last poll.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/brexit-party-may-get-more-eu-election-votes-than-tories-and-labour-combined-poll

That looks like dropping behind the Greens (on 8%) is now feasible for the Tories. Not, I think, UKIP (4%), though.