Poll surge for Farage sparks panic among Tories and Labour

[nitpicker]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/11/poll-surge-for-farage-panic-conservatives-and-labour

Poll surge for Farage sparks panic among Tories and Labour

Toby Helm and Michael Savage

Sat 11 May 2019 23.00 BST First published on Sat 11 May 2019 21.02 BST

Senior Tory and Labour politicians have issued frantic calls to their voters to back them in next week’s European elections after a new poll showed support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party had soared to a level higher than for the two main parties put together.

The Opinium survey for the Observer places the Brexit party on 34%, when people were asked how they intended to vote on 23 May, with Labour slipping to 21% and the Conservatives collapsing to just 11%. Ominously for Theresa May, support for the Tories at the European elections is now less than a third of that for Farage’s party, and below that for the Liberal Democrats, who are on 12%.

The poll suggests the Brexit party, launched only last month, is now on course for a thumping victory that Farage will, MPs fear, use to back his argument that the UK must leave the EU immediately without a deal.
(snip)

There were signs of mounting panic and recriminations in both Tory and Labour ranks as their MPs attempted belatedly to mount “stop Farage” operations.
(snip)

[Tiggeroshii]

1. But this is just their delegation to the eu

They will still be badly outnumbered by pro eu coalitions and will still have little power.

On edit after reading article:

The liberals if change UK is included may still pull off a majority of seats together. If greens, libdems, labour and change work the right way, they could leave Farage, may and other conservative leaders badly embarrassed.

[watoos]

2. Any Russian involvement lurking?

[MFM008]

4. You

Can take that to the bank.

[sinkingfeeling]

3. Can our British members explain why this is?

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Nearly all of UKIP's 2014 vote, plus the hardline Tory Brexiteers, is now for the Brexit Party

2014 results (UK-wide, so includes Northern Ireland, which the current polls don't):
UKIP 27%
Labour 24%
Con 23%
Green 7%
Lib Dem 7%
SNP 2.4%
Plaid 0.7%

UKIP+Con was 50%; now, Brexit+Con+UKIP=34+11+4=49%. Labour is down 3% from 2014, Lib Dems up 5%, Greens up 1%. Not surprising Labour is down a bit, because they're trying to straddle the Brexit fence, while Lib Dems and Greens are firmly Remain.

It was the strong 2014 UKIP vote that scared David Cameron into promising a referendum in the 2015 general election manifesto, because he saw the right wing vote splitting. That worked for that election - he got an absolute majority, and only 1 UKIP MP was elected. They got that back, and more, because very few expect these British MEPs to do much - this is a symbolic election. So strongly anti-EU Tories (including many local councillors) are supporting Farage's Brexit party - the UKIP rump are a bit worse than him (leaning strongly to being an anti-Islam party now; think of Iowa's Steve King, perhaps - even other right wingers are getting uncomfortable about the open hatred now), so most of their voters followed him to Brexit.

[sinkingfeeling]

6. Thank you.