UK Parties: The Brexit Party and UKIP

[T_i_B]

A thread about two parties of the far right that represent everything that is wrong with British politics and society. Both motivated by the same desire to see the UK leave the European Union at any cost.

https://www.thebrexitparty.org/

Dear Brexiteer,
After more than three years of delays and parliamentary games there is a powerful sense of wanting to ‘just get Brexit done’. Feelings of Brexit fatigue have led some Leavers to welcome Boris Johnson’s deal as the best we are likely to get. That is understandable. But it is a mistake. The Prime Minister’s deal is not a proper Brexit. It is far removed from what 17.4m of us voted for in 2016. I can only suppose that pro-Brexit MPs backing the deal have not actually read the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the important Political Declaration (PD) that goes with it. These make up a new European Treaty that reheats 95 per cent of Theresa May’s deal.

https://www.ukip.org/

UKIP was founded in 1993, and since its beginning, has campaigned to take Britain out of the European Union.
It was the efforts of UKIP that forced former Prime Minister David Cameron's hand into holding an In/Out Referendum on 23rd June 2016, and was instrumental in bringing about the largest democratic vote in British history.
UKIP is about more than Brexit though. We have policies on every area of governance, many of which have been "adopted" by the government.

[Denzil_DC]

1. Farage is due to make an announcement today

about what constituencies the Brexit Party's going to stand in.

Originally, they claimed to have vetted 600 candidates (who paid a fee to be considered), now it's possible they'll only stand in Labour-held seats.

This tactic could backfire in some constituencies. The Tories are unlikely to attract tribal Labour voters on principle, whereas those voters might be tempted by the Brexit Party.

Whatever, it sounds like Farage may be eating his words and feeling like it's either Johnson's bad deal or the risk of no Brexit.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. UKIP is in more chaos than any other UK party, which is really saying something

I think they will act as comic relief during this election - everyone else can say "at least we're not UKIP ...".

Dick Braine quits as Ukip leader after less than three months

A party spokesman confirmed that Braine had said he would step down. It comes just over a week after Braine said the national executive had tried to suspend him amid a struggle for control of the party.

One source said Ukip appeared to be on its last legs as a party, and might potentially field no candidates in the general election in December.

In a resignation letter seen by the Kipper Central website, Braine said his efforts to lead the party had been “met with pre-emptive opposition” from senior figures including the Ukip chair, Kirstan Herriot, including a block on appointments.

“I did not join Ukip in order to waste time on internal conflict, but I have found myself powerless to prevent a purge of good members from the party,” Braine wrote.

[LeftishBrit]

3. UKIP are now a tiny party...

and even more internally divided than Tories or Labour. They seem to get a new leader every five minutes!

[LeftishBrit]

4. On the other hand, the Brexit Party is all too influential and scary

I doubt that they'll get more than one or two seats, and quite possibly none at all (FPTP does have *some* advantages); but they may well influence the outcomes in other seats.

[T_i_B]

5. How the Tory / Brexit party splits will be hugely important

If Johnson keeps hold of the OAP block vote we could be in trouble, if that vote splits or goes en masse to the Brexit pity party Johnson and the Tories will be in serious trouble.

Ultimately it could come down to whether people prefer being lied to by Johnson or Farage.

[Denzil_DC]

7. It's going to get quite twisty.

Farage is coming out very strongly against Johnson's deal.

Leaving aside whether Farage ever wants to see Brexit happen at all as his career hinges on it always being in prospect, not reality, I assume there's no feasible deal with the EU that would satisfy him and his followers, so it's no deal or a very restricted (and almost certainly impossible) trade-only deal with the EU that I doubt even Farage believes will happen.

Johnson, until he agreed his deal with the EU, was gung-ho about no deal as being a realistic, if not desirable, outcome, and he and various cabinet members and the ERG headbangers were all for "WTO terms" etc. etc. Now he's got to go into this election defending his deal, and his criticisms of May's deal, which was marginally "better" than his, will come back to haunt him.

I hope we can look forward to Farage and Johnson screaming "LIAR!" in each other's faces ... it'll help save my lungs whenever either appears on the telly.

[brush]

6. How does the general UK public feel about Brexit? Is it split fairly evenly for staying or leaving?

From afar in my part of the US Brexit seems like it will hurt the UK more than benefit it as far as trade and relationships with the rest of Europe.

If I'm wrong please explain if possible.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. Still fairly evenly split

though polls are now complicated by whether they just ask "do you want to leave?" or "do you want to leave with the Johnson deal?". See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Post-referendum_polling , FWIW.

Yes, everyone admits it will hurt the UK more in economic terms than staying (see eg https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/30/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-would-cost-uk-economy-70bn - the prediction is that Johnson's deal would be a little worse for the UK economy than May's would have been. No Deal is still the worst of all.) But Leavers don't necessarily think they will personally be worse off. It would make relationships with the rest of Europe less friendly, but for many Leavers, that's an advantage.

[brush]

9. What are the chances of another vote to stay or leave since it appears Putin meddled and...

aided Brexit just as he aided trump here?

[Denzil_DC]

12. We have no evidence that Putin meddled in any meaningful way in the Brexit referendum.

A report the government's sitting on at the moment is expected to bear that out (see here).

Even if he did, it's irrelevant. A majority of the British electorate voted Leave. We can argue about what "Leave" meant in retrospect, but the major parties' leadership (apart from the Lib Dems latterly and the SNP throughout) boxed themselves into a corner by buying into the "will of the people" rhetoric and voting for the passage of Article 50.

Apparently, repeating the vote would be "undemocratic", despite the fact that the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg only a couple of years ago were in favour of a confirmatory referendum once the terms of any deal were known (which I think would have been the logical and best course) and Nigel Farage saying on the night of the referendum vote that a 48-52 split in favour of remaining would be "unfinished business".

[brush]

14. Seems like it will go on for more years more as a solution seems no closer.

We have no evidence that Putin meddled in any meaningful way in the Brexit referendum.

That's similar to what was said over here about the Russian bots and Putin meddling in our 2016 election. It is now pretty much accepted as fact that the Russians did. trump even asked them openly and withing 24 hours they hacked into Democratic Party servers.

[Denzil_DC]

16. You can dismiss what I've written about Putin's role if you wish.

The fact remains, we have to take responsibility for our own polity, and the writing was on the wall for many years.

If you're looking for outside interference in UK politics, I can point you toward many US right-wing bodies that have been meddling for years and stand to gain directly from Brexit. Their role has been much more influential and significant than anything the Russians have or have not done.

[brush]

18. That's interesting about US involvment. Is Steve Bannon suspeced in that?

Forgive me if I'm attributing too much influence to Putin. I'm learning more and more about Brexit and the rising and increasing tumult over it in the UK for years.

It's hard for us from far away to get an informed understanding of it.

[Denzil_DC]

20. Bannon's a bit player and Johnny-Come-Lately, more a legend in his own mind than a real threat.

I'm talking about groups from the British-American Project and Henry Jackson Society, which has involved a number of UK politicians, to the Koch Brothers, Cato Institute, the Mercers, the usual suspects, including the Tax Payers' Alliance (whose chief, Matthew Elliott, perhaps predictably, doesn't pay UK tax) and the so-called Institute of Economic Affairs, a lobby group whose pundits get regular slots on the BBC, but which is always very cagey about its donors.

Here's a taster from 2018: Rightwing thinktanks unveil radical plan for US-UK Brexit trade deal

And here's a roundup from Byline Times about lobbyists in UK politics: Who's Behind Boris Johnson's Coup? The Murky Lobbyists Who've Taken Over the Government

And it's OK, you're not the first to come in here all guns blazing about Putin, which may be why I sounded a bit weary about it all. For one thing, the referendum was an entirely paper ballot with the count divided between many centres. The conspiracy that would have been required to tamper with the votes themselves would have had to be massive and leak-free.

[T_i_B]

10. People who are strongly for leaving the EU are not going to change their views

And as for myself, I have seen nothing whatsoever to show that there is any prospect of the project to leave the EU being anything other than a complete and utter catastrophe.

So basically we are still a dangerously divided nation.

Another aspect to this is that it's shown how dreadfully limited / incompetent / self interested British politicians are. Which is painfully obvious to Remainers and Leavers alike.

[brush]

11. Seems the UK and the US are equally divided societies, both divisions aided and abeted by Putin.

From you first sentence I gather you prefer leaving?

[Denzil_DC]

13. It's mainly US posters on this United Kingdom Group who keep mentioning Putin.

Those of us who live in the UK have seen our media boosting the likes of Farage and running down the European Union incessantly for many, many years, before Putin's meddling was ever considered a significant factor in anything.

The results of the EU referendum broadly bore out repeated opinion polls - especially in later years, it was always going to be too close to call.

[brush]

15. Here the Putin factor seems to have shifted a very close vote to trump, by just 77k votes.

Just enough to steal the election for him.

[Denzil_DC]

17. We have plenty of assholes involved in UK politics

without having to import Big Bad Vlad as a scapegoat.

[brush]

19. Forgive me for attributing too much influence to Putin. Trying to learn the reasons for Brexit...

whether it hurts or helps the UK.

[LeftishBrit]

22. Putin certainly likes to meddle, and certainly dislikes the EU for diluting his power, BUT..

the seeds of this mess were sown long before Putin. There has been anti-EEC/EU propaganda from the beginning, including considerable exaggeration of the bureacracy of the EU as compared with the UK (I should know; I was more influenced by it than I should have been; only really becoming a Remainer in 2003-04 in reaction to the Blair-Bush collaboration which was mostly opposed by Europaean leaders).

There was opposition to joining the EEC from the beginning. Originally, a lot of it came from Labour MPs and trade unions, concerned about possible job losses. But the more fanatical sort of 'we're losing our independence!' stuff seems to have started largely with Enoch Powell, who was propagandizing about it at least from 1969 - four years before we even joined, and in 1974 left the Tory Party over the issue, joining the Ulster Unionists.

Another seed was, I think, the conditions that the IMF imposed on us when we asked for a loan in 1975. I think some people to this day attribute to EU membership things that really came from the IMF loan.

And then, of course,decades of strident anti-EU propaganda from our more right-wing tabloids.

[brush]

23. Thanks. That's good info to know for those of us from afar trying to understand...

Brexit—the pros and cons. So it boils down to whether the UK is better off on it's own despite any benefits that come from being part of the EU?

Being from a state that's part of a nation of united states I have a bias towards unity and strength in numbers but we here have a common language, customs, currency and long-time history of being united states and not an independent one dating back for millennia.

[T_i_B]

21. Nigel Farage will not stand as a general election candidate

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50280848

Nigel Farage has said he will not be standing as a candidate in the general election on 12 December. The Brexit Party leader told the BBC's Andrew Marr he had thought "very hard" but had decided he could "serve the cause better" by supporting his party's 600 candidates "across the UK".

"I don't want to be in politics for the rest of my life," he said.

Mr Farage, who has stood unsuccessfully for Parliament seven times, also criticised the PM's Brexit deal. The 55 year-old told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show the deal agreed earlier this month was "virtually worse that being in the EU".

"If Boris Johnson was going for a genuine Brexit, we wouldn't need to fight against him in this election," he said.