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How passing Johnson's agreement could still end in a no-deal Brexit
Experts warn the cliff edge would reappear in 2020
... Over recent weeks experts have warned that Johnson’s deal would not in fact take no deal off the table at all. That while it would remove the immediate risk, taking Britain into a standstill transition period, it would not prevent a different version of no deal down the line. This is because the deal handles withdrawal issues but does not firmly establish the future trading relationship. The transition gives us less than a year to negotiate that and the PM has insisted he will not seek to extend it.
If time does run out, what would happen? How would this “no deal two” differ from the no deal we have been warned about, and how serious would it be? Having discussed the issue with leading experts, they are increasingly worried about the risk.
Cabinet ministers of course are keen to downplay it. Home Secretary Priti Patel only this week suggested that a vote for Johnson was a vote to leave with a deal. The government insists that it can negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement before the planned transition runs out at the end of 2020. The PM has said we can have a “super Canada plus” deal, like the EU’s deal with Canada but with add-ons, ready in time.
Yet many experienced figures are far less relaxed. Indeed they are alarmed about the dangers ahead. For Philip Rycroft, formerly permanent secretary in the Brexit department, “the prime minister, having endeavoured to get out of one time trap, is walking straight into another one, because by saying ‘I’m not going to seek an extension,’ he’s putting the power over time in the hands of those he’s negotiating with.” For another former official of similar stature, “If you look at the dynamics of the coming year under a majority Johnson government and with the 27’s position as I believe it to be,” then Britain falling off a second cliff edge “is clearly a substantial risk in late 2020.” In fact, “to be honest, I think it’s quite likely.” For David Gauke meanwhile, now an independent candidate but until recently a Conservative cabinet minister, “Johnson is boxing himself in… a Free Trade Agreement will not be agreed and ratified” in time.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/how-passing-boris-johnsons-withdrawal-agreement-could-still-end-in-a-no-deal-brexit-wto-terms-election-december-12
... Over recent weeks experts have warned that Johnson’s deal would not in fact take no deal off the table at all. That while it would remove the immediate risk, taking Britain into a standstill transition period, it would not prevent a different version of no deal down the line. This is because the deal handles withdrawal issues but does not firmly establish the future trading relationship. The transition gives us less than a year to negotiate that and the PM has insisted he will not seek to extend it.
If time does run out, what would happen? How would this “no deal two” differ from the no deal we have been warned about, and how serious would it be? Having discussed the issue with leading experts, they are increasingly worried about the risk.
Cabinet ministers of course are keen to downplay it. Home Secretary Priti Patel only this week suggested that a vote for Johnson was a vote to leave with a deal. The government insists that it can negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement before the planned transition runs out at the end of 2020. The PM has said we can have a “super Canada plus” deal, like the EU’s deal with Canada but with add-ons, ready in time.
Yet many experienced figures are far less relaxed. Indeed they are alarmed about the dangers ahead. For Philip Rycroft, formerly permanent secretary in the Brexit department, “the prime minister, having endeavoured to get out of one time trap, is walking straight into another one, because by saying ‘I’m not going to seek an extension,’ he’s putting the power over time in the hands of those he’s negotiating with.” For another former official of similar stature, “If you look at the dynamics of the coming year under a majority Johnson government and with the 27’s position as I believe it to be,” then Britain falling off a second cliff edge “is clearly a substantial risk in late 2020.” In fact, “to be honest, I think it’s quite likely.” For David Gauke meanwhile, now an independent candidate but until recently a Conservative cabinet minister, “Johnson is boxing himself in… a Free Trade Agreement will not be agreed and ratified” in time.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/how-passing-boris-johnsons-withdrawal-agreement-could-still-end-in-a-no-deal-brexit-wto-terms-election-december-12
Johnson campaigning on a false prospectus that's almost guaranteed to unravel when faced with reality - well, there's a novelty.