What's the current thinking of the damage from Brexit ?

[steve2470]

The economic estimates I've read are 5 to 10% GDP damage. Huge backups at Calais-Dover. Lack of prescription medications and fresh food from the EU.

Are all those accurate, and what am I missing ? I have friends in the UK, as well as you good UK DU'ers, and I am concerned for you. Thanks in advance.

concerned Yank, Steve

[FBaggins]

1. Depends - Deal or No Deal?

The impacts you’re citing are most often associated with a no-deal Brexit.

With the Brexit party backing off to boost Torie chances... that seems unlikely.

[Denzil_DC]

2. The media have fixated on the immediate "deal" in prospect. 2020 looks like being a bumpy ride.

Here's an ex-No. 10 EU chief:

Ivan Rogers on Brexit: the worst is yet to come

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/ivan-rogers-on-brexit-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-eu-trade-deal-boris-johnson-labour-election-speech-glasgow

[LeftishBrit]

3. These are the likely consequences if we leave without a deal

The consequences of Boris' proposed deal would be bad but not quite that bad. Estimates are that it would reduce GDP by something like 3.5%.

Leaving with a deal would probably avert the acute problems of medicine and food shortages, but there would still be the problem of the already-understaffed health and social care professions becoming even more understaffed, when EU citizens (who, contrary to the stereotypes, are providers more than users of such medical help and care) leave or decide not to come. It's already happening to some extent. Ditto for agricultural workers. The fall in the pound relative to the euro has reduced the incentive for coming to work here, even before taking into account concerns about xenophobia, the uncertainties of EU citizens' future here, etc.

As I've been saying since 2016, we seem determined to be the first country in history to impose economic sanctions on itself.

[steve2470]

4. thank you!

I realize I asked a difficult question with at least two potential answers. If Brexit is inevitable (the Tories seem to be winning the election on December 12th from what I've read), at least let it be as humane as possible, the one with a well-thought-out deal. The Irish border question is a really difficult one and one seemed doomed to exacerbate the chronic tensions.