YouGov model for votes in constituencies

[muriel_volestrangler]

This is from figures from 27th Nov or before, and doesn't, I think, try to predict the effects where ex-Tories are standing against them, whether in the Lib Dems or as Independents. But it is the best attempt, as far as I know, at giving the range in each constituency - which is helpful if you're thinking of tactical voting.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

I'm in Winchester, which has the Tory at 47% (range 40-54), Lib Dem 44% (37-52). Which explains why I'm getting loads of Lib Dem leaflets and letters, and had the Tory candidate on my doorstep a few days ago (I ended up trying to convert him to the Single Transferable Vote ...).

[lapfog_1]

1. how many member does it take to form a government?

317?

crap. Boris for the next few years is a disaster

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Updated results: central prediction is 339 Con seats

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

(95% confidence interval 311-367)

My Winchester seat is now 'tossup' - Lib Dem 40-47-54, Tory 38-46-53.