Local government, London Mayoral and Scottish Parliamentary elections on 6th May

[T_i_B]

It's that time of year when I do a thread about the upcoming local elections. This year it's as follows

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/upcoming-elections

Local council elections in England
Local and Combined Authority Mayoral elections
Mayor of London and London Assembly elections
Police and Crime Commissioner elections in England and Wales
Welsh Parliamentary election
Scottish Parliamentary election

As always, please feel free to let us know what elections are happening in your neck of the woods and what the local issues are.

Here in Sheffield we have council and PCC elections. Expecting yet more Labour decline to be honest. In my ward the Tories are campaigning hard, although all they will achieve by that is to split the anti-Labour vote. Police and Crime Commissioner elections are generating no interest whatsoever as per usual and there are also Parish Council by-elections where I live as the "independent" group of the Parish council has had an acrimonious split.

[msongs]

1. saw a vid w/Laurence Fox running for LOndon mayor. seems to be a trumper with a posh

accent

[T_i_B]

2. Bottom of the barrel

Having ruined his acting career, he's decided to stand for London Mayor on an utterly ridiculous "war on woke" platform. (Presumably being "woke" means being unwilling to be bored to death by gobshites like Fox who bandy stupid buzzwords like that around like they are going out of fashion.)

He's a keen Trump-humper, and his twitter feed gives him away as being something of a moron.

[msongs]

3. too bad I liked him on Lewis tho his character was a bit of a clod nt

[T_i_B]

7. If you think Fox is pretty dreadful

This is what another of the right wing charlatans running for Mayor thinks is a good campaign video!

Link to tweet

Does running for office really have to be something strange men do when they have a mid life crisis?

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. Actor Fox has the self-awareness of a slug

Link to tweet

"At this point I’m just grateful for the option of private medical insurance. I wouldn’t want to be treated by a political institution.

An institution so sensitive it needs a round of applause just to finish work."
This was aimed at an NHS psychiatrist who had laughed, on Twitter, that Fox was polling at 1%:

Link to tweet

Fox the "free speech advocate" cannot handle someone laughing at him, so thinks anyone on a public salary should grovel to him.

[Emrys]

4. Scottish Parliament elections

No point in repeating what I posted here and in the posts below it: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1088&pid=20377

We now have the first Scottish polling since Alex Salmond launched his new list-only Alba Party, with fieldwork having been done in the days after the launch:

Link to tweet

Politics for Scotland
@PoliticsForScot

🚨 New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 29 - 30 Mar (changes vs 11 - 18 Mar):

Constituency:
SNP - 49% (-1)
Con - 21% (nc)
Lab - 20% (nc)
LD - 9% (+1)

List:
SNP - 37% (-2)
Lab - 19% (-1)
Con - 18% (-1)
Grn - 11% (nc)
LD - 8% (+1)
Alba - 3% (+3)

Demographic breakdown:



Usual caveats about margins of error apply, but more so because the sample was less than 1,000. Survation has generally had a house effect of tending conservative on its Scottish polling.

The 3% for Alba would likely mean they take no seats at all, but may have unpredictable effects for the SNP and Greens on the list (conversely, they may improve turnout for the SNP marginally among those, a relatively small minority, who were dissillusioned enough to envisage not voting for them this time, but may be persuaded to turn out and vote SNP at constituency and Alba at list level).

This is going to be a difficult election to poll because of ongoing COVID restrictions, which will affect canvassing and possibly turnout. The franchise has also been extended to include 16-year-olds (the SNP enjoy around 70% support among 16-24-year-olds) and foreign citizens who are permanently resident, so there won't be any turnout weighting for them based on historical performance. It's as well to bear this in mind for any Scottish polling during this election.

Alba isn't the only minor party standing. Some constituencies have 20 or more candidates. Since most of them are unionist and in some cases a few hundred votes one way or another in a constituency or region could be decisive without figuring significantly in a national poll, it makes the situation even harder to read.

There's also a Kantar whole-UK poll, though Scottish sub-samples in national polls can be unreliable:

The poll, published today by Kantar UK, found that a massive 7% of voters across the whole of the UK would vote SNP in a General Election.

Estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggest that around 8.2% of the UK’s population lives in Scotland, meaning a 7% result would be an absolute landslide and is likely outwith the realms of possibility.

However, this represents a 3% increase on Kantar’s February poll, which found 4% support for the SNP. The firm’s January poll also found 4% support for the SNP across the UK.

Pollster Mark McGeoghegan said this 3% increase represented a “statistically significant” change in position for Nicola Sturgeon’s party, adding that the margin of error at 7% is around 1.5 points.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19205432.kantar-poll-puts-snp-7-per-cent-uk-vote-going-holyrood-election/

This at least shows no detectable negative effect for the SNP and Sturgeon from the months of Holyrood enquiries around the Salmond affair and attendant, sometimes blanket, bad publicity.

Salmond's performances in his media appearances so far haven't been impressive. He was roasted at the beginning and end of his BBC Radio 4 morning news interview earlier this week about his refusal to apologize to the women involved in his court case for behaviour that may not have been found illegal, but was at least, by his own admission, unacceptable. It's utterly predictable that questions like that will dog him throughout his campaign, and it's surprising that someone who's been seen in the past as a grand strategist doesn't have better prepared answers other than the fact he won two court cases and it's "time to move on".

[T_i_B]

5. One other poll I forgot about

Is the referendum here in Sheffield about changing the local council from a "strong leader" model to a committee system that involves the whole council instead of a few cabinet members.

It's been in the offing for a while, brought on by the high handed behaviour of the Labour group on the council. Especially with regards to the Amey / PFI fiasco. To be honest it's a foregone conclusion as the committee system is backed by all the other parties and even a fair few Labour folk are jumping on the committee system bandwagon. Nobody is speaking out in support of the strong leader model.

[Emrys]

6. New post-Alba Party launch poll out, though its methodology is flawed

Link to tweet

Mark McGeoghegan ⬋⬋⬋
@markmcgeoghegan

Two points:

1) Panelbase prompted for AP and AFU here. Survation did not. This approach is why the SSP have poll 3% in YouGov polls despite not standing...

2) Panelbase prompted for 'The Alba Party (led by Alex Salmond)'. That is... not good practice...

Mark McGeoghegan ⬋⬋⬋
@markmcgeoghegan

NEW POLL: Panelbase/Sunday Times.

Constituency:

SNP - 49%
Tories - 22%
Labour - 20%
Lib Dems - 6%

List:

SNP - 39%
Tories - 21%
Labour - 17%
Lib Dems - 5%
Greens - 8%
Alba - 6%
AFU - 4%

#SP21 (corrected from AFI to AFU)

Usual caveats about margins of error apply. AFU is Alliance for Unity, George Galloway's latest grift, which is rabidly unionist. It'll be a miracle if it gets anywhere near 4%, and if it does, it could be bad news for the other unionist parties.

[Emrys]

8. New IpsosMORIScot/STV poll out:

Link to tweet

Gerry Hassan
@GerryHassan

.@IpsosMORIScot & @STVNews poll puts SNP 33% & 17% ahead; Alba on 3% & Galloway on 0.5%.

CONSTITUENCY:
SNP 53%
CON 20%
LAB 18%
LD 6%
GRN 2%

LIST:
SNP 38%
CON 21%
LAB 18%
GRN 12%
LD 6%
ALBA 3%
A4U 0.5%

Sample: 29 March-4 April

Constituency vote:



A (necessarily tentative) seat projection from that:



Whatever its shortcomings, this seems more realistic about Galloway's A4U's (Alliance for Unity, a.k.a. AFU) prospects than a previous poll which put them on 4% (and which seriously put the wind up the Tories).

[Emrys]

9. Another poll released today, this one from Opinium/Sky News

Link to tweet

Opinium @OpiniumResearch
🚨 BREAKING 🚨

New Scotland poll with @SkyNews

Despite divisions between Salmond and Sturgeon the SNP have increased their support. Margins are still very tight, but this puts them back on course for a majority.

https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-elections-sturgeons-snp-set-for-majority-but-salmonds-alba-unlikely-to-get-single-seat-sky-news-poll-12268966

Opinium
@OpiniumResearch

Constituency vote:
SNP 53% (+7)
Con 21% (-3)
Lab 18% (-2)
Lib Dem 6% (NC)

Regional list vote:
SNP 44% (+2)
Con 22% (NC)
Lab 17% (-2)
Green 7% (NC)
Lib Dem 5% (NC)
Alba 2% (NEW)

"Other" on the list vote will include Galloway's AFU, among a slew of other minor parties.

Any conclusions at this stage (and even up to the election itself) are highly tentative, and there's always the margin of error to take into account. On its website, Sky News wrote:

If these results are translated roughly into seats, the SNP will get an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament of 13.

The SNP would have 71 seats, while the Conservatives would be on 27 seats, Labour on 21, the Greens on 6 and Lib Dems on 4.

On these results Alba is unlikely to have enough support to get a single seat.

This calculation could be subject to big shifts from comparatively small changes to the voting share, however.

https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-elections-sturgeons-snp-set-for-majority-but-salmonds-alba-unlikely-to-get-single-seat-sky-news-poll-12268966

A follow-on tweet illustrates how sensitive all these polling results are to methodology:

Link to tweet

Opinium
@OpiniumResearch

Caveat: Unlike in our previous poll, we have not prompted for the Green Party in the constituency question, given they are standing so few candidates. This will explain part of the increase in support for the SNP.

Yesterday's main excitement (which maybe shows how turgid this lockdown election's been so far) came from a BBC Scotland Nine news magazine interview with George Galloway where the interviewer tried to question him about the startling inconsistency/hypocrisy in his attitude to working with the Tories:

Link to tweet

indy swim 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
@indy_swim

George Galloway getting VERY ANGRY in this car crash interview on the Nine tonight 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 (1)

[Twitter video]

indy swim 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
@indy_swim

George Galloway getting VERY ANGRY in this car crash interview on the Nine tonight 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 (2)
[Twitter video]

[Emrys]

11. A number of polls since I last posted have shown varying results,

not widely beyond the usual margins of error, but as I've pointed out before, the D'Hondt system, with its added uncertainty of how regional list votes play out, makes elections particularly hard to predict, and a percentage point or two either way can lead to vastly different outcomes.

All that said, here's the latest poll by YouGov for The Times which may prove prescient or (more likely as I see things at the moment) an outlier:

Scottish election: SNP and Greens set for historic election success
...
The YouGov research for the Times forecasts a four-seat majority for Nicola Sturgeon’s party.

The pro-independence Greens, meanwhile, are on track to more than double their return, with 13 MSPs. That would put them just four seats behind Labour, who are predicted to lose out to the Tories in the battle for second place.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice used the survey results to draw up seat predictions for Thursday's vote.

According to his analysis, the SNP would win 68 seats, while Conservatives win 26, five fewer than in 2016.

Labour would win 17, down seven, the LibDems four, down one, and Alex Salmond’s Alba Party would return one MSP.

https://archive.is/BK2ZY#selection-1515.3-1523.36

Other polls have made the election much more of a squeaker for the SNP, varying between just missing an overall majority (in practice almost certain to be topped up by the Greens to form the next government), and a bare one- or two-seat majority.

The Alba Party have varied between 2 and 6% of the nationwide vote. Cagey predictions on that basis (they're only running as a regional list party, so it's the percentage in an individual region that would matter) have veered between no seats at all and maybe 4 or so. Curtice has (perhaps overgenerously, but he's the seasoned pro) awarded them 1 seat with 3% of the vote

[LeftishBrit]

10. Oxford City Council, and Oxfordshire County Council elections

Oxford City Council is Labour controlled, with some LibDems and Greens; no Tories. The two councillors from my ward are Labour. I suppose the most controversial issues at the moment (not strictly party political) are building as always, and whether and where there should be 'low traffic neighbourhoods'.

The County Council is No Overall Control, with the Tories as the largest party. The councillor from my ward is LibDem.

Our Police Commissioner (Thames Valley) is Anthony Stansfield, a Tory. There was a formal complaint about him, with regard to this rather bizarre episode:

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18049792.pcc-anthony-stansfeld-used-work-email-warn-man-computer-hard-drives/

But he will almost certainly be re-elected.

[LeftishBrit]

12. Actually Stansfield isn't standing this time

But I'm sure the next Police Commissioner will also be a Tory!

[T_i_B]

21. Labour won the PCC election where I live

I was actually surprised that they won it so handily given their current decline in South Yorkshire and how hard the Tories campaigned for that election.

I've come across the woman who's been elected Police & Crime Commissioner in Derbyshire for the Tories quite a bit. Hard working, but very partisan and dishonest.

In other news, be glad you don't live in Nottinghamshire!

Link to tweet

[LeftishBrit]

22. The Tories won it in Thames Valley, but it was closer than previously...

and they had to go to second preferences.

[Emrys]

14. Just voted in the Scottish Parliament election.

Our village hall was as busy as I've seen it in any election, and the teller we spoke to said it had been bustling all day. The list ballot has 19 candidates on it, and was so long they were worried they were going to have to stuff it down hard toward the end of the day as it was already quite a tight fit.

The Highlands had snowfall and an overnight "blizzard" over Inverness, so I don't know how that will affect turnout there.

[LeftishBrit]

15. Voted

Seemed as busy, not more, not less, than at other local elections; but not easy to tell because of social distancing rules.

I had received plenty of leaflets from Labour and to some extent the LibDems; not a dicky-bird from the Tories, who probably thought it was a waste of time to campaign here.

[T_i_B]

16. I was the first one in my local polling station!

I had 4 separate ballot papers, which is a record for me. One for City Council, one for Parish Council, one for Police and Crime Commissioner and one for a local referendum on how Sheffield Council is run. I don't envy the people who have to sort them though as they all went into one ballot box.

Don't like voting with glasses steamed up from mask wearing though.

[LeftishBrit]

17. If I'd been one of the first to arrive, it would have been interesting as it turns out...

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19283248.polling-station-opened-boot-car/

Yes, that was my polling station; though as I voted at lunchtime, I didn't experience a car boot vote!

I had 3 ballot papers, one for City Council, one for County Council and one for Police and Crime Commissioner. Yes, they all went in one ballot box.

I see (or rather, sometimes don't see!) what you mean about glasses and masks; though it wasn't too bad today. The polling station was quite well-organized from a Covid point of view: one-way system, strict social distancing, hand sanitizer, etc.

[T_i_B]

18. Conservatives take Hartlepool from Labour in by-election

Whilst it is clear that the media gobshites prattling on about this don't understand the first thing about places like Hartlepool, there is no getting away from this being a disastrous result for Labour.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57019456

Hartlepool has a Conservative MP for the first time since the constituency's creation nearly 40 years ago, after Jill Mortimer won a by-election. Ms Mortimer beat her closest rival, Labour's Paul Williams by 6,940 votes.

The result is a blow for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in his first election test since taking over the party.

But the Conservatives will see it is a sign they are building on their gains in traditional Labour heartlands at the 2019 general election.

Sir Keir had been warning his party had a "mountain to climb" to hang on to Hartlepool, but allies of his predecessor as leader Jeremy Corbyn are calling on him to change direction.

[T_i_B]

19. Sheffield Council has gone to No Overall Control

Labour lost seats on the local council to Liberal Democrats, Greens and Conservatives. Including the council leader losing his seat to the Greens.

The smart money is now on Labour going into a coalition with the Greens. If (as expected) people vote for a change to a committee system on the local council it will at least make for a less high handed council.

Much as was the case in the 2019 local elections, the general trend is towards "anyone but Labour".

[LeftishBrit]

20. Not much change on Oxford City Council

Still overwhelmingly Labour, though Labour lost a seat to the Greens.

We now have 34 Labour councillors, 9 LibDems, 3 Greens and 2 Independent. Still no Tories, yay!

The County Council and Police and Crime Commissioner results are not yet known.