Will Scotland be denied a second independence referendum? - DW News

[TexasTowelie]

On Tuesday Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced plans for a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom, to be held in October next year. That's less than a decade since Scots rejected independence in a referendum in 2014.

[Tomconroy]

1. Have to think Scotland will vote to join Europe.

[Native]

2. I thought that was their main reason for doing this (ever since Brexit).

[Emrys]

3. It's a major factor for many of us.

The "No" side's main argument in 2014 was that a vote for independence was a vote to leave the EU, the implication being that the government of the rest of the UK, as an EU member, would obstruct or make it as difficult as possible for Scotland to gain accession.

As well as pooh-poohing the prospect that the UK might vote to leave the EU in a referendum that had yet to be scheduled at that point, they also laughed at the idea that Boris Johnson might be elected prime minister.

But a proportion of those who supported independence didn't want to join the EU for whatever reasons. The majority opinion from polling has certainly been in favour of joining, as borne out by the EU referendum results in Scotland - all 32 Scottish council areas voted Remain, and the overall result was 62% Remain to 38% Leave. I haven't seen any recent polling on that issue, but it's a fair bet support for EU membership has increased given the predictable shambles Brexit has proven to be.

In the medium term if independence passes, membership of EFTA and the European Economic Area, and hence participation in the Single Market, is the likely first step (and EFTA countries have expressed enthusiasm for the idea), which would give many of the benefits of EU membership without the wait for the accession process to play out, the main drawback being lack of decision-making input at the EU level. Immigration and freedom of movement isn't the same hot-button issue in Scotland as it is in the rest of the UK, especially parts of England.

But these issues and others (like the new constitution) would no doubt need to be decided through post-independence referendums.

[Native]

4. Thanks for the insight.