BTRTN 2020 Snapshot: Dems' Odds of Taking Senate Continue to Improve
Born To Run The Numbers with its latest, up-to-the-minute snapshot of the 2020 Senate races. BTRTN models now suggest that the Democrats have a 62% chance of winning a majority in the Senate... up from 55% in the last report.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-odds-of-taking.html
Excerpts: "The primary season is nearly complete, with the pairings largely determined for the 2020 Senate races. Democrats are in good position to win the three net seats required to gain control of the Senate, assuming Joe Biden wins the presidency. They have excellent chances to flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, while the GOP seems likely, as of today, to take back Alabama. And the GOP is vulnerable in several other races, most notably Iowa, Montana and Georgia. At this juncture – as of today – our BTRTN models suggest the Democrats have a 62% chance of taking control of the Senate, an increase from the 55% chance we noted in our last Senate snapshot on May 9. We have changed ratings in five races, four of them moving more favorably for the Democrats...
"The Democrats now hold commanding leads in several of the flip target states, and the number of states 'in play' has expanded. The following chart gives our BTRTN breakdown as of now. The Dems have eight elections they will surely win, while the GOP has twelve. That gives the Dems 43 'solid' seats and the GOP 42, with 15 races that have at least some chance of being competitive. It is the fate of those 15 seats that will determine control of the Senate. We said the Dems need to flip a net of +3 seats (to get to 50) assuming Biden wins, and, as of now, we see them accomplishing that by flipping four and giving back one. Our models indicate that, at this point, Biden has an 82% chance of winning the presidency..."