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progree

(11,463 posts)
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 08:36 AM Sep 2022

Ughh, Barnes (D) was neck-and-neck a few days ago (U.S. Senate, WI, running against Ron Johnson)

Barnes was neck and neck a few days ago in 538, but now it is 56-44 in simulations favoring Johnson, 3 most recent polls are for Johnson, 9/18 920 AM ET visit,
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/wisconsin/

Edit: I'm no 538 methodology expert, but this isn't the same as the odds of winning ... the most recent polls (all favoring Johnson unfortunately) are Johnson +4, Johnson +1, Johnson +1. Following a string of polls favoring Barnes ( +2, +7, +4, +2)

========================================


538 Still shows this the closest of the Senate races.
Scroll half way down the page to the table
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo


There's a DU link to contribute:   https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforbarnes22

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Ughh, Barnes (D) was neck-and-neck a few days ago (U.S. Senate, WI, running against Ron Johnson) (Original Post) progree Sep 2022 OP
Sounds like cherrypicking after negative ad bombardment GreenWave Sep 2022 #1
I think 538 uses the same model for all the races, and it's been one of the two closest Senate races progree Sep 2022 #3
Incumbents are hard as hell to get rid of. jimfields33 Sep 2022 #5
Nope . . ... Lovie777 Sep 2022 #2
That's a huge lead. Don't get demoralized Wisconsin. VOTE! Raven123 Sep 2022 #4
That's a one point lead. padfun Sep 2022 #6
It's still neck and neck- 56/44 are the odds, not the polling average. Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 2022 #7
I think we are naive when we believe they can't mucifer Sep 2022 #8
This message was self-deleted by its author PortTack Sep 2022 #9
Marc Pocan and Tammy Baldwin are gay, Barnes is a black Lt Gov. LakeArenal Sep 2022 #10
Thx LakeArenal.... PortTack Sep 2022 #11
Russia interfered in Feingold election. LakeArenal Sep 2022 #12
Again ...thx for the informed post about WI politics! PortTack Sep 2022 #13

progree

(11,463 posts)
3. I think 538 uses the same model for all the races, and it's been one of the two closest Senate races
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 08:44 AM
Sep 2022

since I've been following it at 538 (just 3 weeks), what am I missing? Thanks

jimfields33

(18,688 posts)
5. Incumbents are hard as hell to get rid of.
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 08:55 AM
Sep 2022

It happens but not as much as we’d like. Hopefully this will be a win for us.I’m not 100 percent sure of Wisconsin voting habits.

Lovie777

(14,939 posts)
2. Nope . . ...
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 08:42 AM
Sep 2022

majority of the polling outfits are run by Republicans.

Now if Barnes wins, Johnson will claim voter fraud.

padfun

(1,856 posts)
6. That's a one point lead.
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 09:04 AM
Sep 2022

The 56-44 is percentage of winning, not how many are voting for him. This is a normal percentage when a lead is one point, say 51-49.

In sports, a 56-44 percentage is almost a toss-up.

mucifer

(24,792 posts)
8. I think we are naive when we believe they can't
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 09:50 AM
Sep 2022

Win independents and moderate republicans with hate.
The immigration issue now is soooo ugly and the “criminal city violence “ crap they are spewing also works. I wish it didn’t.

Response to progree (Original post)

PortTack

(34,581 posts)
11. Thx LakeArenal....
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 10:32 AM
Sep 2022

The polling is a mystery..why he would start out so strong and suffer this reversal. Didn’t the same happen when Russ Feingold ran?

LakeArenal

(29,771 posts)
12. Russia interfered in Feingold election.
Sun Sep 18, 2022, 10:37 AM
Sep 2022

Ron Johnson is a Russian asshat.

Koch boys started buying WI government before any other State.

We warned the US that they would come for them too but lots of people liked to claim, “WI got what it voted for.” Did we?

When we tried the recall against Walker the DNC gave us nothing. While Walker was highly funded.

The hatred of Hillary was a major goal of Republicans. It worked.

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