Youngkin is not going to win the 2024 VA US Senate Election regardless of what Kaine does.
Youngkin has been Governor for 1 year. Anything can happen from now to 11/2024 (1 year & 10 months). Are voters in VA going to approve of Youngkin leaving the VA Governors office before his term ends? National Republican voters and Independent voters in NC and GA decide whether or not Youngkin leaves the VA Governors office to become President or Vice President of the US. In the VA US Senate Elections, It is the Independent voters in VA that will decide whether or not Youngkin becomes the US Senator.
2024 is a Presidential Election Year. The Democratic Nominee for President will win the popular vote in VA by a 5 to 10 percent margin.
Kaine,Northam,Wexton,Spanberger,and Luria will defeat who ever the Republican nominee is for US Senator.
Luria is better off winning back her US House seat that she narrowly lost in 2022.
Spanberger is better off seeking re-election to her US House seat. VA-7 is a Tossup is Spanberger does not seek re-election.
Wexton’s US House District VA-10 is strongly favorable to the Democrats.
In a November General Election matchup between
Kaine-D vs Youngkin-R
Northam-D vs Youngkin-R
Wexton-D vs Youngkin-R
The Democratic nominee will win.