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FAQ about Exit Polling And Why John Kerry Won In 2004 (Original Post) mylye2222 Aug 2015 OP
Exit polls seemed to be quite reliable before computer voting. nt stillwaiting Aug 2015 #1
If nothing is done about this newfie11 Aug 2015 #2
And now a decision that it's OK to use federal funds Stevepol Aug 2015 #3
The exit polls that year were poorly executed bluestateguy Aug 2015 #4
Don't forget this qualifier though. Stevepol Sep 2015 #5

newfie11

(8,159 posts)
2. If nothing is done about this
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 08:40 AM
Aug 2015

It looks bleak for our future presidential election.
God help the world if trump wins!

Stevepol

(4,234 posts)
3. And now a decision that it's OK to use federal funds
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 09:44 AM
Aug 2015

to root out "voter fraud," in the case in IA hundreds of thousands of dollars and the result? They found about 10 people who may have fraudulently voted. And the state deserves to be able to use federal money to do this.

Yet it's evidently fine to pass laws against voter fraud that disenfranchise tens of thousands of voters?? And at the same time spend nothing to insure that the vote is fair, i.e., to VERIFY THE VOTE???

Something's not right here. Here's the latest stupidity to come from our courts:

https://webmail.east.cox.net/do/redirect?url=http%253A%252F%252Fthevotingnews.us2.list-manage.com%252Ftrack%252Fclick%253Fu%253D9ac28bcf45e3568f411d495eb%2526id%253Dd86e93940b%2526e%253D656e9b074d

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
4. The exit polls that year were poorly executed
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 02:34 PM
Aug 2015

I'm not saying there were not problems with suppression, and Ken Blackwell's little games. There were .

But that year the exit polling company (VNS) had a lot of poorly trained workers who did not follow procedures. These practices for survey-taking are carefully designed by pollsters, statisticians and political scientists. In many cases you had young exit poll workers (graduate students looking to pick up some extra rent money, etc.) who skirted those practices and this produced faulty results.

Also, there is the media. The media is chock full of lazy and ignorant reporters who don't know how to read polls. When the exit poll shows a 2% lead for one candidate, you don't dare call the state as soon as the polls close. You wait and count the goddam actual votes.

Stevepol

(4,234 posts)
5. Don't forget this qualifier though.
Tue Sep 1, 2015, 04:39 AM
Sep 2015

I'm not saying you're not right and the workers were not trained well, but since about 2002, when the results of elections began to register a significant red shift in every election, the polling companies have begun "adjusting" their results on the basis of new ideas about likely over-sampling of Democrats though there is no evidence that this over-sampling is actually happening. The only reason these "adjustments" are done for polls is because the exit polling is so consistently showing more Dem votes than are reported in the "actual" (machine counted) results. The polling companies are private companies remember and if they get a reputation for reporting results that do not match the "actual" (i.e., the machine counted) results, that company will not be trusted or stay in business long. This probably explains why the GA election in 2002 very quickly reported problems with the exit polling and the exit polls were discontinued for that election.

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