http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/SupremeCourtMemo62816.pdf
Phone: 888 621
-
6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: Swing State Voters Don’t Trust Trump on Supreme Court, Overwhelmingly Favor
Hearings For Garland
Date: 6
-28-
16
New Public Policy Polling surveys in 6 key battleground states where Republican Senators are up for
reelection this year find that voters don’t trust Donald Trump and would rather have Barack Obama
picking a new Supreme Court justice than him. As a result they overwhelmingly support hearings on
Merrick Garland’
s nomination to the Supreme Court, and are inclined to punish the vulnerable
Republican Senators who are holding up his selection.
Key findings from the surveys conducted in Arizona, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
Wisconsin include:
-Voters i
n all six states, by margins ranging from 5 to 23 points, say they don’t trust Donald Trump to
nominate a Supreme Court justice. Voters in W
I (34% trust Trump, 57% don’t) and in the home of
Judiciary Committee Chair Charles Grassley of I
A (35% tru
st Trump, 52% don’t) are particularly
skeptical of Trump’s ability to name a Justice.
Beyond simply not trusting Trump, voters in all six states clearly say that they *do* trust President
Obama with the responsibility of making a Supreme Court selection, especiall
y in contrast to Trump. In
the key Presidential battlegrounds of Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Obama
has at least a 9 point advantage over Trump on that question in every state.
State
Trust Trump to Pick Justice
(Y
es
/N
o
)
Trust Oba
ma or Trump More To Pick
Justice
AZ
44/49
Obama, 46/45
IA
35/52
Obama, 49/39
NH
40/55
Obama, 53/39
OH
39/50
Obama, 50/41
PA
40/53
Obama, 51/42
WI
34/57
Obama, 54/37
-Because voters trust President Obama to make a Supreme Court choice and don’t trust
Trump to, there’s
overwhelming support for the Senate to move forward with confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland’s
nomination to the Supreme Court. More than 60% of voters in each of these s
tates supports hearings for
Garland, by margins ranging from 38 to 46 points. That includes overwhelming support from critical
independent voters, and even plurality support from Republicans in 4 of the 6 states:
Phone: 888 621
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6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
State
Overall Support for Hearings
With Independents
With Republicans
AZ
61/23
(+38)
59/22
(+37)
45/34
IA
64/20
(+44)
65/13
(+52)
40/38
NH
68/22
(+46)
71/16
(+55)
42/46
OH
60/22
(+38)
67/18
(+49)
41/34
PA
64/19
(+45)
59/20
(+39)
49/31
WI
63/19
(+44)
65/16
(+49)
36/39
-The reason the issue of the Supreme Court nomination is so important in this set of
states is that these
Republican incumbents are all highly vulnerable. Their approval numbers are mediocre, their races are
close, and voters say that they’re less likely to vote for them because of their opposition to hearings for
Merrick Garland. Right now 4 of these 6 Senate races currently have the candidates with
in 1 or 2 points of
each other. In all 6 of them, voters say by at least a 15 point margin that they’re less likely to vote for their
Republican incumbent because of their opposition to hearing
s for Garland. And these are Senators who
don’t have much goodwill to fall back on. 5 of the 6 have negative approval ratings and the one exception,
Chuck Grassley, still has his worst approval numbers in years with them coming in only narrowly on
positive
ground at 43/40. Voter unhappiness about obstructionism on the Supreme Court issue could be
what flips all these toss up races into the Democratic column and gives them control of the Senate next
year:
State
Senator Approval
Senate Horse Race
More/Less L
ikely To
Vote for Senator
Opposed to Hearings
AZ
McCain, 30/54
McCain 42, Kirkpatrick 40
24/41 (
-
17)
IA
Grassley, 43/40
Grassley 46, Judge 39
22/40 (
-
18)
NH
Ayotte, 40/44
Hassan 44, Ayotte 42
20/44 (
-
24)
OH
Portman, 30/37
Portman 40, Strickland 39
24/40 (
-
16)
PA
Toomey, 30/39
Toomey 40, McGinty 39
23/40 (
-
17)
WI
Johnson, 33/44
Feingold 50, Johnson 37
18/41 (
-
23)
One other thing serving as a drag on these vulnerable Senate Republicans is the unpopularity of their
leader, Mitch McConnell. McConnell’s approval rating is under 15% in all six states, and being tied to
him has the potential to damage the political standing of the members of his caucus. His net approval
ranges from -
26 at best to -
45 at worst in this set of states:
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