This week's major U.S. economic reports (April 11 - April 15)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2022, 08:00 AM - Edit history (2)

The various versions of the CPI come out on Tuesday.

THIS WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS

TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL MEDIAN FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, APRIL 11
11 am NY Fed median 1-year expected inflation March -- 6.0%
11 am NY Fed median 3-year expected inflation March -- 3.8%
12:40 pm Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks

TUESDAY, APRIL 12
6 am NFIB small-business index March 95.5 95.7
8:30 am Consumer price index (monthly) March 1.1% 0.8%
8:30 am Core CPI (monthly) March 0.5% 0.5%
8:30 am CPI (year-over-year) March 8.4% 7.9%
8:30 am Core CPI (year-over-year)) March 6.6% 6.4%
12:10 pm Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks at WSJ event
2 pm Federal budget deficit March -- -$660 billion
6:45 pm Richmond Fed Fed President Tom Barkin speaks to Money Marketeers

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13
8:30 am Producer price index final demand March 1.1% 0.8%

THURSDAY, APRIL 14
8:30 am Initial jobless claims April 9 170,000 166,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims April 2 -- 1.52 million
8:30 am Retail sales March 0.5% 0.3%
8:30 am Retail sales excluding motor vehicles March 0.8% 0.2%
8:30 am Import price index March 2.3% 1.4%
10 am UMich consumer sentiment index (preliminary) April 59.0 59.4
10 am UMich 5-year inflation expectations (preliminary) April -- 3.0%
10 am Business inventories Feb. 1.3% 1.3%
3:50 pm Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on jobs
6 pm Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks

FRIDAY, APRIL 15
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index April 1.2 -11.8
9:15 am Industrial production index March 0.4% 0.5%
9:15 am Capacity utilization March 77.8% 77.6%

https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/category/markets

Economic outlook

Up next for the markets: April 11 - April 15, 2022

James Chen
Head of Content Studio, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

April 06, 2022 | 3 min read

• Inflation’s impact on consumer spending will be on display this week with several key consumer-focused data points scheduled for release.
• Retail sales, consumer inflation expectations, and the Producer Price Index are all on tap.

Inflation’s impact on consumer spending, retail sales and manufacturing will be front and center this week, with several economic data points scheduled for release. Inflation is running at a 40-year high, and investors want to see if consumers are absorbing the increased costs or holding back on purchases.

If the latter proves true, it will cause reverberations throughout the markets. Investors will get a clearer picture after consumer inflation expectations and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March are released. The two data points track how consumers and small businesses are feeling about their finances. If they are getting more pessimistic, spending may fall.

Also set for release are retail sales, the Producer Price Index and unemployment claims for the prior week. Finally, the Fed will release the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for March, which tracks the output of the nation’s manufacturers. Broadly speaking, investors will be looking to gain insight as to how much inflation is impacting sentiment and consumer spending.

{snip}

[progree]

1. Ughh on the CPI expectations month over month: 1.1% (that's a 14.0% annualized rate)

Last Period ....... Expected
0.8% ................ 1.1%   CPI monthly
7.9% ................ 8.4%   CPI year-over-year
0.8% ................ 1.1%   PPI monthly

A 1.1% monthly inflation annualized is 14.0%   (1.011^12 - 1)*100%

Another report that comes out with the CPI report Tuesday is the real (i.e. inflation adjusted) earnings of production and non-supervisory workers

Nominal: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008   (came out Friday April 1)
Real: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032   (to be released Tue. April 12)