Retail observations

[bucolic_frolic]

I think we might benefit from an ongoing OP on what DUers observe in their retail shopping because it highlights slow moving merchandise, or even recession. Recall what empty shelves told us.

Uncharacteristically I shopped in NJ today. I went to ALDI and Kohl's.

In ALDI I found prices lower than when I shopped last week at ALDI's in PA. Sardines were 4 cents cheaper in NJ, and I saw several items that were 10-20 cents lower than in PA. These were regular prices, not the red sticker reduced price markdowns. Potato Chips, which clocked at $2.09 for many months, were something like $1.89. Maybe they just keep the price high for football season?

Kohl's was a real eye opener. When I entered the store a manager was handing out today only $5 off anything in the store. There were very few restrictions. I spotted BigOne, a Kohl's brand I believe, Standard Bed Pillow at $3.99. I could have used the coupon to buy one, it would have been free. So I bought 2 because they've been on my list for awhile. 2 for $7.98 plus tax. Total was $3.18. For two standard pillows. I would have been dumb to walk away.

That type of discounting indicates to me retailers in panic mode preparing for recession, OR that it's been a very very very slow few weeks and they need to pay the rent. Surely Kohl's lost money on that deal, but they moved a large bulky item that is overstocked at the moment.

What do you see in your retail visits?

[Clouds Passing]

1. Busy, busy, busy stores. Busier than ever. Costco is packed. TP and PTs went up $1

Your chips are cheap. Ours are 5.99 for family size.

[Bluestocking]

2. Recession by summer

The US will most likely be officially in a recession by summer. Those paying attention understand what is coming.

[mitch96]

3. Welcome to the funny farm!!! It's a great bunch..nt

[progree]

4. "Most Americans can't afford life anymore -- and they just don't matter to the economy like they once did"

Most Americans can’t afford life anymore — and they just don’t matter to the economy like they once did, MarketWatch 3/7/25

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/most-americans-can-t-afford-life-anymore-and-they-just-don-t-matter-to-the-economy-like-they-once-did/ar-AA1Atodl

. . . While each individual observation about low- and middle-income Americans no longer spending like they did in the past — buying fewer burgers (link) and pizzas (link), holding onto their cars longer (link), trading down to less expensive vacations (link)— may seem innocuous, together they add up to an overall sense that spending by all but the wealthiest has dropped.

. . . The bottom 90% of earners — those who make less than $250,000 a year — are now responsible for 50.3% of all consumer spending in the country, data from Moody’s Analytics show. Thirty years ago, they accounted for 64% of U.S. spending. As the rich make up an increasing share of the U.S. economy, bolstering overall consumer spending, middle- and low-income Americans cut their spending from fall 2023 to fall 2024, Moody’s found.

. . . A whopping 55% of those in the bottom third on the American income scale say they are doing worse than they were five years ago, a survey of consumer sentiment shows.

. . . Frick noted that the inflation rate for necessities is about twice as high as overall inflation.

. . . The percentage of car-loan payments that are more than 90 days past due has risen to the highest level in at least eight years among Americans in the lowest income bracket, data from the New York Federal Reserve shows.

Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments at Highest Rate in Decades https://www.democraticunderground.com/111699838

My summary of how the economy wasn't working out for a lot of people even though a lot of us were saying, pre-election, that the economy was great -- look at the jobs numbers, and inflation is below 3% and wages are keeping up and blah-de-blah https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143390474#post22

I haven't been shopping for anything since Feb 27, so I can't report on any recent trends.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. "the inflation rate for necessities is about twice as high as overall inflation"

50 or even 40 years ago, no cost of cell phone, cable, internet, heat-pump servicing. Cars were cheaper to buy and repair, then we went from one O2 sensor to 3,4,5 or more, and ABS, and electronics. Plus traffic, the cost of home maintenance. And then wages don't keep up with inflation after taxes. Work harder and harder, two incomes, 2-3 jobs just to stay afloat. Property tax increases, insurance costs.

But did you notice? The CEO's make 20-50 times what they once did. The C-suite is stuffed with cash. Companies don't build HQ, they build palaces on suburban corporate campuses. They have armies of MBAs and lawyers to do M&A, they have political slush funds. You don't have guaranteed pensions, you have 401Ks in index funds so you can be average.

No wonder no one gets ahead. The system is rigged and skimmed at every joint. No wonder people want to work for themselves.

Inflation is only a symptom of the disease. The FED made this all possible by never allowing a recession to clear the markets. Hasn't happened since 1982, and that was only about 75% cleared. Every downturn since the FED floods the market with liquidity, bails out the insolvent, banks are the vehicles and the collaborators. Once the markets are flooded the money goes UP the income ladder again. 40 years feeding super capitalists!! All hail to the chief! John D. Rockefeller didn't have it this good.