Short interest is only reported every two weeks.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Short+interest+is+only+reported+every+two+weeks
Massive amounts of shares have been bought and sold in the last few days.
1,222,342,500 shares of $AMC were traded on Jan 26.
And 591 and 597 millions on Jan 27 & 28 respectively.
Outstanding Shares of $AMC are about 450 million with 524 million Authorized(1). At 20 dollars a share that is a $9 Billion Market Cap for a company that five days ago had a market cap of $1.43 Billion *(Jan 25, 2021).
* https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMC/amc-entertainment-holdings/market-cap
The Authorized Shares of $AMC are not noted and Outstanding Shares are under estimated at 287.28M at Yahoo.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/key-statistics?p=AMC
footnote(5) states: Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report
More recent filings show 356,498,711 possible shares outstanding from a prospectus:
PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT
(To Prospectus dated December 30, 2020)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000110465921006891/tm214013-1_424b5.htm
Class A Common Stock to be Outstanding after this Offering
Up to 356,498,711 shares of our Class A common stock. The actual number of shares issued may not exceed the number of authorized and available shares under our amended and restated certificate of incorporation.
Plus a 44 million share liquidation for debt purposes:
UPDATE: AMC Entertainment to issue 44.4 million shares as investors opt to convert $600 million of convertible debt
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amc-entertainment-to-issue-444-million-shares-as-investors-opt-to-convert-600-million-of-convertible-debt-2021-01-28
A good estimation appears here:
AMC Entertainment: Trading Frenzy Gives It A Lifeline For Survival
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4402233-amc-entertainment-trading-frenzy-gives-lifeline-for-survival
Estimated Share Count
AMC's estimated share count is now approaching 450 million. It had 109.92 million shares at the end of Q3 2020, and added 50 million via at-the-market equity offerings in October/November. It added 22 million shares from the Mudrick transactions, then added 178 million via an at-the-market equity program that it announced in December. This program was recently completed, along with another 50 million shares that it issued via another at-the-market equity program.
The conversion of AMC's convertible notes adds another 44.42 million shares, partially offset by a related cancellation of 5.67 million Class B common shares owned by Wanda.
And all this is before even considering the "Short Interest". Which technically is only published twice per month.
https://www.highshortinterest.com/nyse/
AMC AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc NYSE 78.97% 56.57M 287.28M Motion Pictures
See the problem? The short interest from two weeks ago is no longer valid at 78%. It is at best 12% at those numbers and totally irrelevant to what trading will occur on Monday. And don't even get me started on naked shorts. Those are air shares that are created for the purpose of facilitating trades and may or may not be covered.
https://www.nyse.com/market-data/reference/nyse-group-short-interest
The NYSE Group Short Interest File is a semi-monthly file containing the reported uncovered short positions of securities listed on NYSE, NYSE Arca and NYSE American. Historical data is available from Jan 1988 - present.
Basically it comes down to an interpretive guess on crowd behaviors. Will traders buy it on the way up? Probably. Will the other traders open new short positions? Most definitely; this is especially true when the Market Cap gets torqued out of equilibrium. That is what is happening with $GME: People can't believe the valuation at 500 and sell it down to whatever point that others believe they can make a profit from. Then there is the added upward pressure of those who believe predatory short selling is wrong and want to punish those who do it. They've already punished one hedge fund to the tune of billions of dollars, Billions, and others are rushing in to take their place because the downside is still attractive based on their analysis.
Melvin Capital, hedge fund targeted by Reddit board, closes out of GameStop short position
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/hedge-fund-targeted-by-reddit-board-melvin-capital-closed-out-of-gamestop-short-position-tuesday.html
Melvin Capital closed out its short position in GameStop on Tuesday afternoon after taking a huge loss, the hedge fund’s manager told CNBC.
CNBC could not confirm the amount of losses the firm took on the short position. Citadel and Point72 have infused close to $3 billion into Melvin Capital to shore up its finances.
Melvin manager Gabe Plotkin told Andrew Ross Sorkin that speculation about a bankruptcy filing is false.
GameStop short sellers are still not surrendering despite nearly $20 billion in losses this month
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/gamestop-short-sellers-are-still-not-surrendering-despite-nearly-20-billion-in-losses-this-year.html
Short-selling hedge funds have suffered a mark-to-market loss of $19.75 billion year to date in the brick-and-mortar video game retailer GameStop, according to data from S3 Partners.
Still, short sellers mostly are holding onto their bearish positions or they are being replaced by new hedge funds willing to bet against the stock.
GameStop shares that have been borrowed and sold short have declined by just about 5 million over the last week, marking an 8% dip in the short interest, according to S3.
Most of the short covering occurred on Thursday, when the stock fell for the first time in six days.
So that's GameStop. What about $AMC? As the price rises there will probably be more short positions being taken. It is a tug of war between Bears and Bulls, and those who cheer them on. If the millions of members of r/wallstreetbets turn their attention to $AMC there will be another reckoning coming. Some have already started. It looks like the focus is coming. But who really knows. Other than the share structure and reported facts, the rest is speculation.
However, I am willing to wager that those original 56 million shares shorted have been covered and new ones have taken their place. The information source is at a minimum two weeks old by now and only available on uncovered short positions. One way to gauge the momentum in either direction is by watching how it trades on the day while having guide posts to how low it will go and how high it will fly within a given trade window. I myself believe 7-8 dollars is a for sure bet on being able to sell higher. But if the price and volume is rising a lot it might also be true that a higher entry price can still make an even higher sell profit. It is an amazing opportunity. But, it is not for the feint of heart. Be careful hunting elephants, you could get crushed.
Yahoo historical trade info:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/history?p=AMC
Currency in USDDownload
Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Jan 29, 2021 14.31 16.00 11.60 13.26 13.26 597,691,000
Jan 28, 2021 11.98 16.50 6.51 8.63 8.63 591,223,900
Jan 27, 2021 20.34 20.36 11.01 19.90 19.90 1,222,342,500
Jan 26, 2021 5.09 5.19 4.37 4.96 4.96 456,850,200
Jan 25, 2021 4.71 4.88 3.85 4.42 4.42 443,238,100
Jan 22, 2021 2.91 3.74 2.81 3.51 3.51 266,780,300
Jan 21, 2021 3.00 3.06 2.85 2.98 2.98 64,823,800
Jan 20, 2021 3.29 3.34 2.75 2.97 2.97 181,862,200
Jan 19, 2021 2.80 3.20 2.57 3.06 3.06 256,276,000
Jan 15, 2021 2.20 2.55 2.18 2.33 2.33 160,651,300
Jan 14, 2021 2.22 2.32 2.13 2.18 2.18 49,638,800
Jan 13, 2021 2.33 2.38 2.13 2.18 2.18 45,847,700
Jan 12, 2021 2.24 2.39 2.24 2.29 2.29 41,784,300
Jan 11, 2021 2.16 2.27 2.15 2.20 2.20 41,695,800
Jan 08, 2021 2.09 2.21 2.07 2.14 2.14 39,462,600
Jan 07, 2021 2.08 2.11 2.02 2.05 2.05 26,150,500
(1)
Authorized
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000141157920000074/amc-20200930x10q.htm
Stockholders’ equity (deficit):
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.'s stockholders' equity:
Class A common stock ($.01 par value, 524,173,073 shares authorized; 61,882,218 shares issued and 58,149,593 outstanding as of September 30, 2020; 55,812,702 shares issued and 52,080,077 outstanding as of December 31, 2019)
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