Researchers argue that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is not enough to combat climate change

[Jim__]

This paper is not yet available but it has been accepted for publication. The lead researcher is James Hansen.

The following is an excerpt of an article about the paper at phys.org

...

A long-standing issue concerns how much global temperature will rise for a specified CO2 increase. A 1979 study released by the United States National Academy of Sciences concluded that doubling atmospheric CO2 with ice sheets fixed would likely cause global warming between 1.5 and 4.5° Celsius. This was a large range, and there was additional uncertainty about the delay in warming caused by Earth's massive ocean.

This new paper reevaluates climate sensitivity based on improved paleoclimate data, finding that climate is more sensitive than usually assumed. Their best estimate for doubled CO2 is global warming of 4.8°C, significantly larger than the 3°C best estimate of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

...

The authors also conclude that much of the expected greenhouse gas warming in the past century has been offset by the cooling effect of human-made aerosols—fine airborne particles. Aerosols have declined in amount since 2010 as a result of reduced air pollution in China and global restrictions on aerosol emissions from ships. This aerosol reduction is good for human health, as particulate air pollution kills several million people per year and adversely affects the health of many more people.

...

This new paper predicts that a post-2010 acceleration of global warming will soon be apparent above the level of natural climate variability. The 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade is predicted to increase to at least 0.27°C per decade during the few decades after 2010. As a result, the 1.5°C global warming level will be passed this decade and the 2°C level will be passed within the following two decades.

more ...

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. Global warming in the pipeline

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Documents/PipelinePaper.2023.07.05.pdf

[Jim__]

3. Thanks for posting that.

[Think. Again.]

2. K&R

I suspect that despite all the discussion about CO2 and global temperature rise, as well as the effects both of these changing conditions will have on our ability to live well that we have been having for decades, we will still be very surprised by how bad it is all going to get.