Nature - Relying On Natural Carbon Sinks (Oceans, Forests) Won't Stop Warming, Will Help Nations Cheat On Emissions
Relying on natural carbon sinks such as forests and oceans to offset continued fossil fuel emissions will not stop global heating, the scientists who developed net zero have warned. Each year, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all human emissions, forming part of government plans to limit global heating to below 2C under the Paris agreement.
But the international group of authors who developed the science behind net zero have warned that countries could “cheat” their way towards Paris targets using naturally occurring parts of Earth’s carbon cycle to make it look as if they achieved net zero while continuing to drive global heating. The study, published on Monday in Nature and led by the University of Oxford, said that naturally occurring carbon sinks such as rainforests and peatlands must be protected so they can remove historic pollution, but never formed part of the original net zero definition developed by scientists in 2009.
The scientists underscored the need for “geological net zero”, which means any future carbon emissions must be counteracted by permanent removal of the pollution from fossil fuels – not from pre-existing natural ecosystems. They urged governments to urgently clarify what net zero means at Cop29 in Azerbaijan or continue to risk catastrophic climate breakdown.
The rules of the Paris agreement allow countries to claim carbon removals from “managed land” in their territory in their targets towards the goal, such as parts of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil or the taiga forest in Russia. But the net zero researchers said these rules allow countries to take credit for naturally occurring processes that have nothing to do with human emissions. Conversely, emissions and removals from “unmanaged” land, such as the recent wildfires in Canada that released CO2 equivalent to three times their annual footprint, are not factored into a country’s progress towards the targets.
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/18/countries-nature-cheat-net-zero-targets-paris-agreement-cop29