Study Projects Dengue Rates 2x+ Higher In Parts Of Latin America; Local Infections Confirmed In 5 US States
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The researchers found that there is an optimal temperature range in which mosquitoes can transmit dengue to humans. Below 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius), the virus behind dengue multiplies too slowly inside mosquitoes for them to easily spread it. But as temperatures rise, the amount of virus in mosquitoes rises and thus leads to higher infection rates, peaking at around 84.2 F (29 C). Consequently, in some areas of Peru, Mexico, Bolivia and Brazil — where dengue is already endemic — infections may rise by more than 150% in the next few decades as these regions experience higher temperatures within that peak range, the researchers predict.
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The researchers didn't consider the U.S. in their analysis because they needed consistent data on dengue infections over a long period, Mordecai said. Dengue is endemic to some U.S. territories but not to any states — yet.
Nonetheless, there is emerging evidence that climate change is making dengue more common in the states, as well. In recent years, locally acquired cases have been reported in California, Texas, Florida, Hawaii and Arizona — that means people caught dengue within the U.S. and not from traveling to another country. In June 2024, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that Americans would face a higher-than-normal risk of dengue infection that summer because of rising cases worldwide.
It's a fraught situation: Temperatures in the U.S. are becoming more suitable for dengue to spread locally, and there are more infections happening elsewhere that are then being imported into the country. "Dengue is coming, and dengue is going to get worse in places that are currently at the marginal temperature range [for transmission]," Mordecai said, including high-altitude tropical regions, as well as southern parts of Brazil, North America and Europe.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/dengue-is-coming-climate-fueled-rise-in-cases-will-affect-the-us-scientists-warn/ar-AA1ud5Pj