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China's Corruption Scandal: Is War with Taiwan Now Less Likely? (ft. the Robinson Crusoe Fallacy) - William Spaniel
Earlier this year, reports of a corruption scandal in China surfaced. Allegations included poorly designed missile silos that are unable to open and soldiers siphoning off fuel for the purposes of cooking hotpot. An oft-repeated conclusion regarding the report is that China will be less likely to stage a military campaign against Taiwan in the near future as a result. Is this true? Using some simple lines on maps logic, we will see that the answer is not so simple.
You can read the original report here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military
0:00 China's Corruption Scandal and the Probability of War
2:36 What Are the Corruption Allegations?
6:58 Less Desire for War?
9:41 The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy
14:08 Is Conflict Less Likely?
17:04 Asymmetric Information and War
19:17 Preventive War