THE CYTOKINE STORM (Why COVID-19 is deadly to healthy people)

[Laelth]

COVID-19 has already killed a disproportionate number of young, healthy people that have been infected with it, and it will continue to do so. Normally with influenza viruses, we are most concerned about potential fatalities among the very young, the very old, and the very weak. This viral infection is somewhat different. While the 2019 Coronavirus will prove lethal to some of the very old and some of the very weak, it is unlikely to prove deadly to the very young. So far, there have been very few deaths among persons in the 0-9 years of age range. The 20-40 range, however, is at particular risk with this kind of virus. Here's why:

UNDERSTAND THE CYTOKINE STORM

This coronavirus can trigger "Cytokine release syndrome" (a cytokine storm) in persons with particularly healthy immune systems. COVID-19 is a disease that you actually have a better chance of surviving if your immune system is slightly compromised. The 1918 flu pandemic (The Spanish Flu) killed between 50 and 100 million people, many of whom were young and healthy. Evidently, the virus triggers the body's immune system and keeps triggering it, non-stop and relentlessly, until the infected person is killed by their own, super-strong immune system. That is the essence of a cytokine storm, and it's why many young, healthy people are likely to be struck down by this disease.

It is believed that cytokine storms were responsible for the disproportionate number of healthy young adult deaths during the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed 50 to 100 million people.[15] In this case, a healthy immune system may have been a liability rather than an asset. Preliminary research results from Hong Kong also indicated this as the probable reason for many deaths during the SARS epidemic in 2003.[16] Human deaths from the bird flu H5N1 usually involve cytokine storms as well.[17] Cytokine storm has also been implicated in hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.[18]

In 2006, a medical study at Northwick Park Hospital in England resulted in all 6 of the volunteers given the drug TGN1412 becoming critically ill, with multiple organ failure, high fever, and a systemic inflammatory response.[19] Parexel, a company conducting trials for pharmaceutical companies, in one of its own documents, wrote about the trial and said TGN1412 could cause a cytokine storm—the dangerous reaction the men experienced.[20]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

Take a look at this graph:



Notice the spike centered on the 25-34 range. Those are our healthiest people, and this graph deals in percentages. Yes, the chances of dying are higher for persons in the 75+ range, but there are many fewer people in that age range than in the 25-34 range. The raw number of deaths is likely to be highest among those who are young and healthy if COVID-19 follows the pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.

Even if it doesn't exactly mimic the 1918 pandemic, it is foolish to pretend that our most healthy people are unlikely to die as a result of COVID-19. The high number of deaths that occurred as a result of the 1918 pandemic seems to be related to the fact that we actively selected transmission of more virulent strains of the virus. There were millions of troops in the trenches during WWI that came down with that virus. The ones who were only a little sick (ones with the less-virulent strains) were left at the front. The ones who were very sick (ones with the most virulent strains) were sent on crowded trains into the hinterlands--to multiple hospitals across multiple countries, where these more virulent strains were quickly transmitted to the local population and ended up killing tens of millions of people.

Answer: Isolate the more virulent strains. Well over half of us are going to catch this thing. Our best hope is to catch a less-virulent strain that we survive and that will then give us some immunity to the more virulent strains, but please, young people, do not assume that you are invulnerable. We all need to be very careful.

-Laelth

[cilla4progress]

1. This is very confusing

to me, as I understood having a strong immune system is good, and that older folks are especially vulnerable due totheir weakened immune system.

Could the 20 -40 old spike be due to transmission, ie, more fraternizing?

I hope your info is correct, because there is a lot of misinformation floating around.

[Turin_C3PO]

2. It is true regarding

the 1918 flu. Health people with strong immune systems represented the most victims. Their immune response went in to overdrive and killed them. It may also be true, to an extant, with this virus.

[Laelth]

3. It appears that we inadvertently spread more virulent strains in 1918.

Please, feel free to double-check me. The information I have delivered comes from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

-Laelth

[Nay]

4. I haven't read ANYTHING about cytokine storms being a problem with this coronavirus.

[Laelth]

5. Well, you will ... far too soon. n/t

-Laelth

[Warpy]

6. That's a pretty big "if."

Viral load might also be a factor, which is why China saw so many severe cases among health care workers, especially at the beginning when their officials were acting like our Presidunce and trying to pretend it away.

One hazy theory about the 1918 pandemic and it's lethality to the young and healthy was that they had somehow been sensitized as children under 10 to a pandemic of similar virus that had come through 20 years or so earlier. It's only a theory and a rather hazy one, at that, but there are few other ways to explain the odd pattern of the 1918 pandemic.

[Laelth]

7. I saw that theory regarding the "Russian flu." It's reasonable.

Let us hope that we don’t do what was done in WWI and actively select for the transmission of the more virulent strains of the virus. That, I think, was the principal cause of the high mortality rate seen in the 1918 pandemic.

-Laelth