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sl8

(16,245 posts)
Mon Oct 12, 2020, 05:52 AM Oct 2020

Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000

https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/analysis-finds-true-pandemic-death-toll-is-much-higher-than-200000-in-us/

Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000

BU researchers: number of pandemic-related deaths is 36 percent higher than reported, with disadvantaged communities hit even harder than thought

OCTOBER 5, 2020
MICHELLE SAMUELS

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced last week that the United States had passed a grim milestone: over 200,000 Americans have now died from COVID-19. But research from Boston University School of Public Health finds that the true number of losses could be much higher.

That analysis, available on medRxiv ahead of peer-reviewed publication, took a close look at the number of US deaths between February and September 2020 that are characterized as in excess of the number of deaths that would be expected in a normal year. Researchers discovered that for every 100 excess deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, there were another 36 excess deaths—also likely caused by COVID-19, but in a less obvious manner.

BU researchers, who teamed up with collaborators from the University of Pennsylvania and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, found more of these additional deaths in US counties that have greater income inequality, high percentages of non-Hispanic Black residents, less home ownership, and high population density. The data suggest that higher mortality rates are inextricably linked with socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism.

Looking at where the most excess deaths occured is a better measure of the pandemic’s disproportionate effect on communities than simply tallying up the total number of COVID-19–related deaths, according to study lead author Andrew Stokes, a BU School of Public Health assistant professor of global health. “Excess deaths include COVID deaths that were ascribed to other causes, as well as the indirect consequences of the pandemic on society,” he says.

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Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000 (Original Post) sl8 Oct 2020 OP
249,167 nt intrepidity Oct 2020 #1
Yikes: unblock Oct 2020 #2
Good eye! n/t sl8 Oct 2020 #3
Oh my God,... they fudged the numbers to make trDumpie look good on paper. magicarpet Oct 2020 #4
Yes and no unblock Oct 2020 #5
This has been found before ... lots of people dying at home, never tested positive, etc. eppur_se_muova Oct 2020 #6

unblock

(54,157 posts)
5. Yes and no
Mon Oct 12, 2020, 06:24 AM
Oct 2020

There may be some fudging certainly, but some of this is inevitable.

Some Covid-related deaths might not have been counted if the victim never was tested or if they tested negative (tests aren't perfect)

Some coroners might not have listed Covid as the cause of death if multiple problems existed, e.g., the victim already had copd, stage 4 cancer, etc.

And some people have died theoretically having nothing to do with Covid, but because of the pandemic, they avoided preventive care or stopped exercising or otherwise did things that increased their chance of dying from unrelated causes.



And yeah, also the fudging. That too.

eppur_se_muova

(37,436 posts)
6. This has been found before ... lots of people dying at home, never tested positive, etc.
Mon Oct 12, 2020, 08:55 AM
Oct 2020

So COVID-19 not listed as official cause of death by the coroner. As someone else pointed out, where there are other comorbidities present, it would actually be very difficult to decide if COVID was responsible w/out knowing the course of the disease.

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