The Delta Variant Is A Grave Danger To The Unvaccinated

[appalachiablue]

- Experts believe that the Delta variant, which was first detected in India, is far more contagious than the virus that tore through the world in 2020.
__________

'The Delta Variant Is a Grave Danger to the Unvaccinated.' One half of America is protected. The other is approaching a perilous moment in the pandemic. By Dhruv Khullar, The New Yorker, June 23, 2021.

Lineage B.1.617.2, now known as the Delta variant, was first detected in India, in December, 2020. An evolved version of sars-CoV-2, Delta has at least a dozen mutations, including several on its spike protein that make it vastly more contagious and possibly more lethal and vaccine-resistant than other strains. In India, the Delta variant contributed to the most devastating coronavirus wave the world has seen so far; now it has been detected in dozens of countries, including the United States. In the U.S., it accounts for a minority of cases—but it is rapidly outcompeting other variants, and will likely soon become our dominant lineage.

Much of what we know about Delta is preliminary, and based on reports from India and, more recently, the U.K., where it now accounts for more than 90% of new cases. Four-fifths of British adults have received at least one shot of a covid-19 vaccine, and more than half are fully vaccinated—but the variant has spread widely enough among those who remain vulnerable to fuel a quadrupling of cases and a doubling of hospitalizations in the past month. The vast majority of Delta-variant cases seem to have occurred in adults under 50, whose rates of vaccination remain lower than those of older people. Last week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the U.K.’s full reopening, originally scheduled for June 21st, would be postponed.

Earlier this year, scientists estimated that lineage B.1.1.7—the Alpha variant, first isolated in England—could be some 60% more transmissible than the original version of sars-CoV-2. Now experts believe that the Delta variant is 60% more transmissible than Alpha—making it far more contagious than the virus that tore through the world in 2020. It hasn’t yet been conclusively shown that Delta is more lethal, but early evidence from the U.K. suggests that, compared to Alpha, it doubles the risk of a person’s being hospitalized. Even if the variant turns out to be no deadlier within any one person, its greater transmissibility means that it can inflict far more damage across a population, depending on how many people remain unvaccinated when it strikes.

In this regard, India’s apocalyptic surge is Exhibit A. In May, at the crest of the wave, the role of the Delta variant was still unclear. A number of factors—the return of large gatherings, a decline in mask-wearing, and a sluggish vaccination campaign—had made a disaster of some kind more or less unavoidable. But it now seems likely that the rise of Delta accelerated the crisis into a shockingly rapid and widespread viral catastrophe. In the course of weeks, millions of people were infected and tens of thousands died; the country’s medical system buckled under the weight of a mutated virus. One of the most disturbing aspects of India’s surge was that many children fell ill. And yet there is currently no data to suggest that Delta causes severe illness in a greater proportion of kids; instead, it seems likely that the sheer transmissibility of the variant simply resulted in a higher absolute number of infected children.

One vitally important finding to emerge from the U.K. and India is that the covid vaccines are still spectacularly effective against Delta...

Con't...
https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/the-delta-variant-is-a-grave-danger-to-the-unvaccinated

[Scrivener7]

1. While I stand by the accuracy of my original statement, I'll remove it due to the

Last edited Sat Jun 26, 2021, 09:14 AM - Edit history (2)

"I don't like that" replies.

[Arkansas Granny]

2. What makes you say that? The article says that even one shot offers some protection and

fully vaccinated people have the best chances against the disease.

[Scrivener7]

8. If they get it today, it will be 6 weeks before they get full protection.

One dose does not protect very much.

And in 6 weeks, Delta will be everywhere.

[paleotn]

16. Granted, significantly less than 2 doses, but.....

it does give some protection. Some countries with limited supplies have done the wide time spread between doses calculus. Instead of fully vaccinating a limited number of people due to trouble getting enough vaccine, they've single dosed as many as possible and spread the time frame between doses in hopes of getting additional supplies. It's not a perfect solution, but many times you have to work with imperfect.

[secondwind]

3. I disagree. And the article doesn't say that. Perhaps

this should come down?

[Scrivener7]

9. No. Delta is moving fast. If people get their first dose today, it will

be six weeks before they have the maximum protection, which is still not foolproof against the new strain, though it is nearly so.

The new strain will be spreading everywhere much sooner than 6 weeks from now. It took about 3 weeks to overcome the UK and its already growing fast here.

[speak easy]

12. From TFA "If our primary objective is to reduce hospitalizations and deaths,

a first dose still gives very good protection." - Muge Cevik, an infectious-diseases expert at St. Andrews University and an adviser to the British government.

The emergence of the Delta Variant is not an excuse to do nothing remain unvaccinated.

[littlemissmartypants]

15. Thank goodness that's your uneducated opinion. Because I would hate

That you to feel responsible for someone dying because you said it's too late to get vaccinated.

Unless you want to show us a copy of your epidemiology degree and tell us what department of the CDC you work in.

I'm almost completely over the Debbie Downers here. I am completely done with the uneducated medical advice.

[IronLionZion]

24. Don't discourage people. Teenagers only recently became eligible

and children are still unvaccinated. The delta variant has infected and killed young people in other countries already.

People can still mask and social distance and take other precautions until they are fully vaccinated

[WHITT]

4. The Reports From Israel

are extremely worrisome. We'll all likely have to get the damn booster shots

[Arkansas Granny]

5. If that's what it takes, I'll roll up my sleeve again.

[joshdawg]

11. Yes! Absolutely!

[WHITT]

23. Oh I'm Fine With It

but we've had enough trouble trying to get the stupid Maganderthals to get vaccinated, and here we go again. Therefore our entire nation has to go through this all over again, because these idiot RightWingers wouldn't cooperate with simple science. If we could have gotten to 85%, we might have been able to head this variant off at the pass.

[paleotn]

17. My thoughts exactly.

Boosters along with flu vaccine this Fall. Speed of mutation has always been the worry.

[IronLionZion]

18. OK, I hope booster shots become available soon

I'll take it

[drray23]

28. worrisome? I took it the other way

It showed that even though they had breakthrough infections, few ended up in the hospital ( 26 out of a country of 8 millions). The vast majority of cases ended up requiring no hospitalization.
Israel is trying to vaccinate the kids now to further reduce it.

From that article about Israel posted in another thread:

Despite the new outbreak, the country’s current death rate remains close to zero, and only 26 of 729 active coronavirus patients were hospitalized, according to data released by the Health Ministry. And the overall daily caseload remains far from the country’s peak in mid-January, when the average hit more than 8,000 daily cases. The containment effort has struggled to have an impact as the virus continues to spread through several cities.

[WHITT]

30. Well

pardon me, but I worry about being one of the "fewer". Guess I'm gonna have to open a new box of masks.

[drray23]

31. you of course can do that but also make sure you dont use a car, travel, cross the street

or pretty much do anything . The odds of dying for those are higher.

[True Dough]

6. I feel sorry for those with health complications who cannot be vaccinated

but I have no sympathy for the anti-vaxxers who espouse conspiracy theories. They'll meet the fate that they chose for themselves.

[Botany]

7. I feel badly for their kids, families, neighbors, and co workers but I am now 100% in the ....

... camp of let them die and if they get the disease do not waste anytime or medical care on
them. They chose to be stupid and listen to Fox News, the GOP, and their "Pastors" we should
send the vaccines they chose not to take to some other country that needs it.

Nearly All COVID Deaths In US Are Now Among Unvaccinated
Source: AP News

Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.

The AP analyzed figures provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC itself has not estimated what percentage of hospitalizations and deaths are in fully vaccinated people, citing limitations in the data...

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187

[progree]

10. Interesting that India's daily new cases are down 87% from their May 9 peak

and down 46% in the last 2 weeks (7 day moving average ending June 25 compared to 7 day moving average ending June 11).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/india-covid-cases.html

From OP excerpt:

Lineage B.1.617.2, now known as the Delta variant, was first detected in India, in December, 2020. ... In India, the Delta variant contributed to the most devastating coronavirus wave the world has seen so far;

Herd immunity? Modi cheating on the numbers? (reported daily new deaths down about 70% too).

Vax rates from the same NYTimes link above: Fully vaccinated: 4%, At least one dose: 18%.

[Scrivener7]

25. That is interesting.

[3Hotdogs]

13. I worry about my grandkids.

One is eligible next month when he turns 12.


The other two, not for a couple of years.

Should FDA shelve the limits for younger kids?

[HUAJIAO]

14. I suspect the age limit will be lowered much sooner than 2 years...

[paleotn]

21. Research into that is grinding along. Hopefully the data will point to vaccinating everyone.

[Arkansas Granny]

26. I have family members who are too young for vaccine, as well.

I'm keeping my Covid practices as if I am not vaccinated so I can visit them without risk of unintentionally infecting them.

[drray23]

29. there are currently trials going on with kids between 5 and 12.

I suspect they will soon give the go ahead for this age category too.

[paleotn]

19. And it's not just increased communicability that frightens me....

Covid has a lot of room to work with regarding lethality. A mutation could be a number of times more lethal and still not significantly diminish its ability to infect new hosts. It's bad enough as is, and we're still figuring out the long term affects, but we did get lucky in that current forms aren't many times more lethal. Then again, a 5 to 10% lethality rate across all age groups might have cut out all this politicization bullshit. Or not.

[Icono Classless Jerk]

20. It's almost like Nature is Attacking Us

And, gee whiz, what could we possibly have ever done to deserve that kind of treatment???

[riversedge]

22. This is why I still wear a mask. Stupid, selfish people who refuse to get vaccinated.

[Arkansas Granny]

27. +1