Yale study finds that gun violence is a contagious social epidemic

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://news.yale.edu/2017/01/04/yale-study-finds-gun-violence-contagious-social-epidemic

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Yale study finds that gun violence is a ‘contagious’ social epidemic[/font]

By Bess Connolly Martell
January 4, 2017

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Led by Andrew Papachristos, associate professor of sociology at Yale, the researchers analyzed a social network of individuals who were arrested during an 8-year period in Chicago, Illinois — a city that has rates of gun violence more than three times the national average. The team studied connections between people who were arrested together for the same offense, and found that more than 60% of all gun violence during this time period happened in “cascades” — or connected chains — through these particular social networks.

“We want to take this epidemic of gun violence out of the criminal justice paradigm and put it in a public health context that focuses on victims and the reduction of trauma,” says Papachristos, corresponding author on the study.

The study also determined that an individual within these social networks was at the greatest risk of being shot within a period of about 125 days after their “infector,” the person most responsible for exposing the subject to gun violence, was the subject of gun violence. These results provide evidence that gun violence is not just an epidemic, but it has specific network patterns that might provide plausible opportunities for interventions, notes Papachristos. “There is a real value in understanding the timing of these events as a way to identify victims, and where we can insert resources such as violence- and harm-reduction programs into these networks.”

“If we want to drop gun violence rates in this country, we have to care about the young men with criminal records who become victims of gun violence,” says Papachristos. “By and large these are young men of color who have criminal records. Their lives are worth saving.”

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.8245

[sarisataka]

1. So to avoid the "gun flu"

it seems prudent to avoid being a member of social networks, defined as "people who were arrested together for the same offense".

In layman's terms, this study finds "criminals shoot other criminals".

[yagotme]

2. To avoid the gun flu,

avoid the gang. Makes sense.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. Well

That’s a demographic model. i.e. “criminals shoot other criminals”

http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.8245

…

Comparing levels of gun violence in the United States and its concentration within communities with an epidemic garners wide appeal but, scientifically, often stops at descriptive and spatial analyses. Whereas previous research has been cross-sectional, the present study advances understanding of gun violence by modeling it as social contagion and by directly tracking the contagion’s spread. Our findings suggest not only that gunshot violence concentrates within certain populations but also that the diffusion of violence follows an epidemic-like process of social contagion that is transmitted through networks by social interactions. Violence prevention efforts that account for contagion, in addition to demographics, to identify likely subjects of gun violence have the potential to prevent more shootings than efforts that focus on only demographics.

Our research suggests that a holistic public health approach to gun violence should be developed in at least 2 ways. First, violence prevention efforts should consider the social dynamics of gun violence: tracing the spread of violence episodes through social networks could provide valuable information for public health and medical professionals, in addition to law enforcement, looking to intervene with the people and communities at highest risk. Given that public health and epidemiology are founded on studying pathways of transmission, approaches from these domains may readily extend to gun violence prevention efforts. For example, information on the timing and pathways of gunshot cascades might provide street outreach workers of campaigns (eg, Cure Violence, a violence prevention model used in more than 50 US cities that draws on public health methods to mediate conflicts before they become violent) with a more accurate assessment of the people who would most benefit from their program. Likewise, hospital-based violence intervention programs might follow such network models to extend their services beyond the emergency department to others within a social network who are also at risk of becoming gunshot subjects.

Second, concerted efforts should focus on making gun violence prevention efforts subject focused rather than offender focused by prioritizing the health and safety of those in harm’s way. Although mounting evidence from multiple cities suggests that small place-, group-, and network-based interventions can effectively reduce gun violence, these network-based approaches have often relied heavily or solely on law enforcement activities. The individuals identified in our study are not in contact just with the criminal justice system: they are also deeply embedded within the public health, educational, housing, and other governmental systems. A fully realized public health approach centered on subjects of gun violence includes focused violence reduction efforts that work in concert with efforts aimed at addressing the aggregate risk factors of gun violence, namely, the conditions that create such networks in the first place or otherwise determine which individuals are in such networks (eg, neighborhood disadvantage and failing schools).

…

[Eleanors38]

7. Data on "social network" shootings are now logarithms in a computer...

Since none dare call it profiling.

[jmg257]

4. Go figure...

"As in other major US cities, violent gun crime in Chicago is intensely concentrated in a small number of socially and economically disadvantaged neighborhoods (where homicide rates can be upward of 75 per 100 000 people). Furthermore, gun violence is concentrated in small social networks: a recent study10 by one of us (A.V.P.) of nonfatal gunshot violence episodes in Chicago from 2006 to 2014 found that more than 70% of all subjects of gun violence could be located in networks containing less than 5% of the city’s population"

"social networks", "gangs", whatever. They do offer possible solutions...

"...violence prevention efforts should consider the social dynamics of gun violence: tracing the spread of violence episodes through social networks could provide valuable information for public health and medical professionals, in addition to law enforcement, looking to intervene with the people and communities at highest risk...concerted efforts should focus on making gun violence prevention efforts subject focused rather than offender focused by prioritizing the health and safety of those in harm’s way"

[benEzra]

5. So it sounds like the obsessive focus on attacking lawful gun owners and target shooters...

is focusing on the wrong cohort.

[Eleanors38]

6. "Infector:" The last gangster to shoot another. Capone is now medical terminology.