I just averaged the last 5 national polls

[The Polack MSgt]

and Donald Trump leads Secretary Clinton by almost 17% among white Americans.

That's fucking disgusting, but I note that his support is right at 50% and Sec. Clinton's is 33% - he does not quite receive a majority of the white vote... so, yay?

I'm not sure what I should feel about that to be honest.

How could this charlatan get a vote from anyone other than Klansmen and meth heads?

Although I am willing to reluctantly accept that 50% of white people could be Klansmen and meth users.

Peace

[unblock]

1. not to excuse (because there is none),

but when we're down to two candidates, simply picking one over the other doesn't give a great view into the full thinking behind it.

many republicans are holding their noses and supporting trump simply because he's the republican. they'd prefer another candidate but they don't get to express that point of view in november.


so they're not exactly klansmen/methheads directly, but they're willing to support an open bigot in the hope of getting a tax cut or whatever. which makes them uncomfortable, but not uncomfortable enough to do the right thing.

so, "klansmen, methheads, and their willing enablers" would be more accurate.

[The Polack MSgt]

2. "klansmen, methheads, and their willing enablers"

^^^^^^ - Holy Hell - ^^^^^^

That is the best damn description of the 21st century Republican Party I have ever seen

[unblock]

10. and they objected to being called "a basket of deplorables" ;)

[Warpy]

3. It's tough to be glow in the dark white, old, and have a little money

because so many people ASSume I'm going to vote for that raging Cheeto. There is no way on gawd's green earth I'd vote for that blowhard and I've got plenty of company among other palefaces in this white minority state, a place you'd think people would divide themselves along color lines. Uh-uh, economic yes, color no.

In red states, the media, clergy, and everybody around you will be spouting the Republican party line, and if you're working hard and don't have the time, talent or inclination to spend time fact checking, you're going to believe the horseshit everybody around you is spewing. That's where Asshole's white support is coming from. They're not Klanners or meth heads, they're just hard working people who never hear the other side of the story.

Then there are the truly disgusting human beings he's pandered to all along. I don't know what percentage they are, but I tend to guess they're around 50% of his most vocal supporters. I also know that a fair proportion aren't registered, something that must have dawned on Asshole's campaign staff if one of their latest commercials offering to register people is accurate. Fortunately, it's too late to register in a lot of states and even if they do, are they smart enough to find the polls?

I don't think garnering the angry white male vote is going to be enough for him. I sincerely hope not.

[OhZone]

4. I'm white -

and frankly white people suck.

Worst people in my life are white. My alky parents and the woman who broke my heart are white.

Of course, I'm a lesbian so -

[The Polack MSgt]

9. Most of the worst people in my life too

Of course even in a biracial marriage, most of the people in my life are white.

Thank you for the response

[whatthehey]

5. A lot of it is always, but more now than usual, self-identity

Racism and misogyny are plenty common, but not so ubiquitous or overwhelming as to make 50% of whites (far higher for men) vote for somebody they otherwise wouldn't. A far bigger driver is simply team allegiance. Republicans are patriotic, religious and all-American with a side of manliness in the eyes of many people who follow politics only at a surface cultural level. To vote Dem is seen as counterculture, less patriotic, more secular and a bit effete. We're the ones who try to change that Norman Rockwell Pleasantville type America, and they resent that. Such people often don't care or think about policy, and their reaction to candidates is filtered through the lens of allegiance. When Napoleon launches a sneak attack he is a cunning hero to the French and a villainous cheat to the British. Just so Trump "tells it like it is" and "stands up to political correctness gone mad" to them and "foments racist hatred" and "insults women indiscriminately" to us.

[kwassa]

13. Chest thumping has always worked in American politics.

Candidates imitating manliness always do well.

[JustAnotherGen]

14. +1

[forgotmylogin]

6. Just to verify...you didn't compute an average of percentages, did you?

Poll A: 90 percent of respondents favor position X. 10 percent favor position Y.
Poll B: 40 percent of respondents favor position X. 60 percent favor position y.

90+40=130. /2 = 65% favor position X
10+60=70. /2 = 35% favor position Y.

The conclusion would seem to be people favor position X 65%-35%.

That's not how math works with percentages.
Percentages idealize the entire sample they are based on, and a percent of a larger group has more "weight".

If poll A had 10 respondents, 9 of them make 90%. 1 makes 10%.
If poll B had 1000 respondents, 400 of them make 40%. 600 of them make 60%.

If we combine them into one group of 1010 respondents:

409 favor position X. 601 favor position Y. (X and Y each /1010)%
40.5% favor position X. 59.5 favor position Y.

I once had to explain this slowly and in great detail to a person who made a whole lot more money than I do.

[The Polack MSgt]

8. I do understand the math

and no I didn't break out the discrete responses add them up to recalculate a new average.

I averaged the percentages. Here is why - These polls had a small spread (47% to 51%) and a similar sample size, so the affect of a small sample size outlier should not be significant.

Percentage of respondents that favor Trump:

CNN/ORC 49%
CBS News/New York Times 49%
Fox News 51%
Monmouth University 47%
Quinnipiac University 50%

Which averages out to 49.2%

I also used 50% instead of the 49.2% to make a "how can half of us support this clown?" post rather than a statistical breakdown of the polling data.

One statistics class I took in the 80s does not make me a data cruncher worth reading - DU has a lot of smart people who do those types of posts.

Thanks for responding FML (wow, those initials are unfortunate... How about I call ya Forgot?)

Peace

[Buckeye_Democrat]

7. Many people are more concerned about their own selfish interests instead of...

... what's good for society as a whole.

I don't think that I need to even support that statement with examples! I assume that people have observed it everywhere!

There's indeed many white people who are outright racists, believing they're "superior" and such, but then there's some who see black people rioting in the news and feel fear. If they saw videos from Milwaukee recently, they might have even seen some AA people saying, "Get him! He's white!" Or they might have seen some white people pulled from their vehicles and assaulted in Los Angeles after the Rodney King police decision.

Being self-centered, they don't step back and put themselves in the shoes of others or try to understand their anger and frustration. They just focus on what affects them, or what MIGHT affect them.

Trump has clearly made some statements that makes many whites think he's got THEIR best interest at heart.

That's what I think explains it, at least partly.

EDIT: I'll indeed give an example... an unusual one. I have a rare genetic condition that causes early blindness. I visited an eye doctor to get another drug injection in my eyeball to slow it down. As I was being prepped, the aide said that she felt "the most sympathy" for their old patients with age-related macular degeneration. I replied that all vision loss is bad, but at least many of them are already retired and they don't need their eyesight as much to work and support themselves. Then I mentioned premature babies who are born with detached retinas, and how that's so sad if it's not fixed. She replied, "I guess. I still feel the worst for the old people. I try to imagine what it's like to get old and have that sort of thing happen to me too."
TRANSLATION: "I'm not a premature baby or have a rare genetic problem, but I MIGHT lose MY eyesight when I get older."

[Wednesdays]

11. Rump needs at minimum 65 percent of the white vote to win

And I think I heard that would be a twenty year high. Not impossible, but a really really high bar to reach.

[emulatorloo]

12. Romney did better than that with white Americans. He still lost