The Hot Battery Startup That Could Zap Tesla

[question everything]

One of the wildest plotlines in the great 2020 electric-vehicle rally was the late-year rise of QuantumScape, QS -14.08% a battery startup that has yet to report any revenue. If investors are even close to being right about its roughly $44 billion market value, they may need to worry more about the fortunes of Tesla.

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Solid-state batteries have long been seen as a way of breaking through performance limitations associated with today’s electric vehicles. Like your smartphone, a Tesla or BMW i3 is powered by a battery with a liquid electrolyte that carries lithium ions back and forth between the cathode and anode during charging and discharging. These liquid electrolytes are bulky and liable to overheat. General Motors recalled almost 69,000 Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles in November after five reported fires.

The promise of solid state is to get rid of the liquid, and with it the fire risk. Moreover, “lithium-metal” cells being developed by QuantumScape, among others, combine the lithium component with the anode, further reducing bulk and potentially delivering more power at a lower cost. This is also critical: Electric vehicles have long been held back by the relatively high cost of batteries, which makes them more expensive than combustion-engine equivalents.

Other advantages of solid state include rapid charging and longer life expectancy. QuantumScape said in December that its cell as tested could be recharged to 80% in 15 minutes and retained more than 80% of its capacity even after 800 charges. Such numbers would make owning an electric vehicle much more similar to owning a gas-powered one today.

Many in the battery industry see solid state as the most likely technology of the future. Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk is a prominent exception. Solid state wasn’t among the many developments discussed in the company’s September “battery day.” Mr. Musk told analysts on the third-quarter results call that removing the conventional anode “is not as great as it may sound” in terms of delivering space savings in the cell.

Tesla’s skepticism may also be related to its own battery technology, which would likely make it harder than for others to adapt to solid state electrolytes. Tesla uses cylindrical batteries formed from rolled cells, whereas its competitors typically favor so-called prismatic batteries, in which cells can be stacked. Because solid-state cells are more brittle than liquid ones, they will be much easier to stack than to roll.

More..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hot-battery-startup-that-could-zap-tesla-11609497031 (subscription)

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I just think it may interest people here, I don't exactly follow the details..

[leighbythesea2]

1. Well Apple

Has entered the car industry. So maybe they will or have embraced this. Id like to see competition drive innovation. I respect Tesla, but why we arent further along, in general, in alternatives to gas vehicles is sad. Since Al Gore is one of my favorite people, I wonder where we would be had he been president.

[Miguelito Loveless]

4. Apple has been hot and cold on this

Called “Project: Titan”, they laid off most of the engineers on the project a year, or so, ago. Plus they had two opportunities to buy Tesla cheap, and passed. Hard to take them seriously.

[PoliticAverse]

2. I've seen so many battery invention "game changers" that I won't believe in any until

people have been buying them for a while.

Tesla is certainly at risk from some other company having a battery breakthrough, it is one of the reasons Tesla stock is likely a high-risk investment.

[Miguelito Loveless]

5. So far, Tesla has been

making steady progress for the last decade driving down the price while increasing energy density. So, my money is on Tesla, especially their new 4680 tabless cell

[mitch96]

3. I think that to get people on board with electric car, you need to be near the gas engines

Speed,range and refill time. Then people will buy into the idea. Other than that, to me its a compromise. YMMV
M

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. More re-thinking the way we drive and fuel

I've been driving electric since 2014, started with a used 2012 Leaf, which had about 75 miles of actual range. As a daily driver it was fine, replaced one gas car in our home, and we went from consuming 800+ gallons a year to just over 400. Three years later, we replaced our second gas car with a used 2017 Volt, PHEV with 53 miles of electric range (350 miles more on gasoline). So, the only time we burned gas is when on vacation, and the odd long distance business trip. That year we burned 57 gallons of fuel, after that never more than 40 gallons. We drove the Volt for two years, sold it for pretty much what we paid for it, and splurged on our first new car ever, a Model 3, and have burned no gasoline since.

During the entire time, we charged at home, and never "ran out" of fuel and got "stuck". We come home at the end of the day, plug in, and the next morning we have a full "tank". The Tesla gives us access to the supercharger network, of which there are 17 in our state.

As time goes buy, more people and businesses will add chargers to their parking areas. The US is lagging, but the EU and China are moving very quickly to transition to EVs.

[mitch96]

7. I like the idea of a hybrid for the transition, but one that does not use gasoline. Hydrogen?

Non polluting biofuel?.. We use the most energy when moving a vehicle from stop to cruising speed. At speed we don't need much fuel to keep the vehicle moving. Electric to get the thing moving and then a non polluting source to keep it at speed.
Once we get the electric car to have a range of 300-350 miles (like gas cars now) charging stations all over the place and a quick charge electrical storage I'm all in.. I love the instant 100% torque of an electric motor. It gives me the impression of more horsepower. At least it did with my Prius... I would love to get a used leaf for running around town, which is most of what I do. Used Leaf's are relatively inexpensive. Also a lot less expensive for maintenance from what I hear. No oil change etc.
BTW the maritime industry has been using hybrid systems since the late 1940's and early 1950's. A electric motor to move the propellers and a big ass diesel running constantly at one speed to feed the electric motors. The constant speed is more fuel efficient and the electric motors give instant torque and can vary that torque instantly also... Not that new technology but how to apply it to automobiles is the trick..YMMV
m

[Miguelito Loveless]

10. Bio-fuels are problematic

Since most farms still run on diesel, a lot of fossil fuels are spent creating bio-fuels, as well as petroleum used in fertilizer and pesticides.

At the moment only a few cars (mostly Tesla) have 300+ miles of range, but people have been doing pretty good with cars with only 200+ miles in daily use. 85% of daily driving is 35 miles or less, so literally a used Leaf for under $10K would suit the vast majority of people's driving. Again, it is a matter of changing our thinking about driving and fueling. We are accustomed to filling up all at once, after running the tank down as far as we can, then going to the a special place that has our special fuel with a constantly varying price, and not the most hygiene of environments.

Driving electric means fuel is as near as your nearest electric socket, and adding dedicated fueling spots is pretty cheap (compared to the cost of a gas pump). Also, environmentally WAY more friendly). People are too fixated about fueling time, and forget that most re-charging is done while the car is parked, thus time is really not an issue (and you cannot safely leave a gas car to fuel unattended). For most people, cars are idle 95%+ of the time.

Gasoline is a pretty dangerous substance to be around. It is toxic, environmentally damaging in all stages of production, and highly flammable. And while the news media likes to showcase every EV battery fire they see, gas fires are so common they are barely news unless they disrupt a major traffic route.

You are correct that hybrid drives have been used in marine transport a long time, also in rail freight, and that is where H2 might work out, as long as it is green H2 from solar or wind production.

This is not to say they EVs are the solution for everyone, or that we don't have a lot of infrastructure to build out. We need solutions for apartment dwellers, and that means LOTS more chargers are needed.

[mitch96]

11. I think bio fuels that the energy to produce them from wind/solar/tides would answer production

problem. The charging problem is for people that are on the highway doing longer trips. It's ok if you are at a motel charging over nite but during the day you are pretty much screwed. Unless a quick charge method was devised. Quick change battery packs? naw that would be problematic also. That's why I 'm saying a alt fuel internal combustion hybrid for the transition period would work. Our society does not do well with big changes... Small changes sort of sneak under the door for the unwilling.
Ymmv
m

[Miguelito Loveless]

12. You can produce biomass/biofuels

using green energy, but then you would have to have electrified farm machinery. Possible in the very long term (2040-2050), nut not before. There are no replacements for petroleum in fertilizers/pesticides, so that's still a problem. Also, some of the biomass involves the production of methane, which is again, problematic.

I agree that we hate change, but it kind of depends on the change, and what monied interest is opposing it. PCs/Internet slipped in pretty easy. Cell phones were fought, then co-opted by Ma Bell (they have pretty much undone the Bell break-up off the 80s).

Right now EVs/Green energy are opposed by some pretty big players, so, it is likely to be a knife fight for the next decade.

Trouble is, that may be too late. In fact, I personally believe it is already too late. If so, then change comes in an uglier manner.

[leighbythesea2]

8. Good to hear this

I'm buying electric this year, & it will be used. My aunt had a prius she bought new 2012 & loved it. We took it on a trip in 2013 and remember no issues. I looked @ used one that year, and should've bought then.
The city I'm in in ohio has a lot of charging stations too.

[Miguelito Loveless]

9. The hybrids from Toyota have a pretty good track record

Unfortunately, they have no pure EVs right now, and only two PHEVs with about 20-25 miles of electric range. Toyota is VERY hostile to BEVs, and says it will stick to gasoline, hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells going forward. If true, they are going to have a hard time selling in the EU and China.

[leighbythesea2]

13. Im open to

Other makes/models for sure. Thats why your synopsis is helpful. Need all the first hand info, its so good. When i get closer to buying, may I dm you if i have questions?

[Miguelito Loveless]

14. Please feel free to ask any questions

I have experience with a number of EVs and PHEVs. Also, solar, battery backup, and home security and automation.

[leighbythesea2]

15. Thank you

I appreciate that!