MLB finally admits changes to ball itself fueled home run spike, but doesn't say how or why

[Eugene]

Source: Washington Post

MLB finally admits changes to ball itself fueled home run spike, but doesn’t say how or why

By Dave Sheinin
May 24 at 5:30 PM

Major League Baseball on Thursday confirmed for the first time something pitchers in the sport have been saying for more than two years: that changes to the composition and/or behavior of the baseball are responsible, at least in part, for the surge in home runs since the middle of the 2015 season. What remains unexplained, however, is what exactly those changes were, or why they occurred.

A committee of 10 scientists and data specialists, formed by Commissioner Rob Manfred, concluded in a report released Thursday that home run surge can be explained, at least partially, by “a change in the aerodynamic properties” of the ball — specifically, “reduced drag for given launch conditions.”

The home run surge “is not due to either a livelier, ‘juiced’ ball, or any change in batter or pitcher behavior,” the report concluded. “It seems, instead, to have arisen from a decrease in the ball’s drag properties, which cause it to carry further than previously, given the same set of initial conditions — exit velocity, launch and spray angle, and spin. So there is indirect evidence that the ball has changed, but we don’t yet know how.”

“The great mystery is: What in the world has happened that we’ve had a small change in drag — it isn’t large — but one that seems to be systematic enough that it’s affecting offense,” said committee member Lloyd Smith, a professor of mechanical and materials engineering at Washington State University. “We’ve done every test you could imagine, and we just couldn’t nail it down. It’s in there. It’s in the data someplace. But it’s going to take a lot more time and effort [to solve].

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Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/05/24/mlb-finally-admits-changes-to-ball-itself-fueled-home-run-spike-but-doesnt-say-how-or-why/

[Kilgore]

1. Good article at the link, thanks for posting.

[Kurt V.]

2. A) global warming?

B) PED masking?

That's all I got.

[tonyt53]

3. I'll call bullshit on this supposed "report". MLB doesn't want to admit what is going on.

Games have gotten longer and scoring had dropped, so they had to do something.

A very slight change in the threads of the ball will have a major impact on the pitcher firstly. They can through even faster, but get less movement. Evidenced by a pitcher just last week hitting 105 mph on three pitches to the same batter. He also walked that batter because the last 105 pitch was so wild the catcher couldn't get his mitt on it.

The strike zone has shrank to almost nothing. Back in the days of the Mantle/Maris HR race, it was the knees to the top of the lettering on the batters chest. Now it is mid-thigh to mid-chest.

Even a very slight difference in how tightly the core of the ball is wound will make it a "hotter" ball.

Lastly, it is well known that batters are swinging upwards more and more. The analytics have shown that the odds of having a HR or extra base hit are increased. On top of that, by swinging more "upwards", the batter is more likely to hit the ball just slightly under the center. That makes the ball go higher and further. I speak to this from personal experience. Back in the early 70's as slow pitch softball exploded in popularity (there was even a professional league - I played pro slow pitch softball for a couple of years before it folded), some of us were hitting restricted flight softballs over 340 feet on a regular basis. The right field foul pole in Yankee stadium is 325 feet. I hit one out of a 365 park. I also saw a couple of other guys do it. We have one thing in common - we swung upwards more and we hit the ball a little above center or a little below center.

MLB needs the HR now more than ever and is willing to do whatever it takes to keep them moving.

[KatyMan]

4. Interesting post, thanks! n/t

n/t

[ProfessorGAC]

5. One More Add

I agree with everything you wrote and wanted to add that the stigma of "striking out too much" is pretty much gone.

In this analytics age, an out is an out. (Other than official sacrifices.) So, a guy who can hit 40 HRs but strikes out 160 times isn't headed back to the minors.

40 years ago, they would have worried about that many Ks but since the teams don't care as much, the players sure don't. And, hitting it out means BIG $$$. So, if you swing hard and upward and hit the long ball 30 or 40 or 50 times, but strike out 180 times, you're still going to get paid. $18 million or more for 5 to 8 years.

The motivation to not go for the fences barely exists.

[tonyt53]

6. Just say a picture "Aaron Judge" and you just put a name and face with what you said.