BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

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http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Each year we analyze the HOF ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis? The two lists are never identical.

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”