There are several things to discuss so let's separate the items.
First, Kyler Murray is in the fourth year of his rookie deal, and is trying to get his current team (Cardinals) to give him a larger contract. At the moment he and his agent have limited power, and the franchise tag is not in play here. The Cardinals can choose to give permission to Murray and his agent to shop for offers and bring them back to the team, but no other NFL team can talk to him or sign him to any sort of contract (this would be considered tampering).
The second is to you question about trading future picks to get around the franchise tag cost of two first round picks. I believe the team who signs the tagged player must give their first two available 1st round picks, and are not allowed to choose which picks to surrender. This prevents a team with multiple first round picks over the next few years (Houston Texans) from signing a tagged player like Miami's Mike Gesecki and then trading two 1s in 2024 and 2025 to Miami if the Dolphins chose not to match the offer.
The final discussion point comes back to the salary cap, the current going price for veteran QBs, and the near-term access to incoming rookie QBs. If a team signs a tagged QB, they do so with not only the draft pick hit, but also the salary cap hit. Let's look at the Watson trade. Cleveland gave up 3 first round picks, and took on a massive salary cap hit with the new contract. While this gives them a potential QB upgrade if Watson stays out of trouble, it also limits them from signing other players who could help the Browns on either side of the ball. A team also has to look at the skill set of a QB and determine if that player's abilities and accomplishments justify both the draft pick capital and the salary cap hit. This is where the discussion of Lamar Jackson comes into play, as teams would need to determine whether his skill sets fit their scheme and warrants the surrender of draft capital. The other option is to do what many teams are doing and that is accumulate draft capital in 2023 to be able to move up and get one of the high skill set college QBs slated to come out next year.
The clear advantage of a high skill set QB on a rookie deal (Joe Burrow) is it allows a team to go out and sign offensive skill and defensive players to complement the QB. What will be interesting to see in a few years is what happens when Joe Burrow reaches the end of his rookie deal. The Bengals are notoriously tight-fisted and I can see a situation where a QB needy team signs him and chooses to forfeit the two 1s.
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