This election, white Catholics are riding a political rollercoaster

[rug]

Voters cast ballots in Cleveland as early absentee voting began Oct. 12 ahead of the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election. (CNS/Aaron Josefczyk, Reuters)

Thomas Reese | Oct. 13, 2016

White Catholics have been riding a political rollercoaster this year with their support for Donald Trump going up and down and then back up and now down again. Where they will be on Election Day may well determine the outcome of the race.

Back in March, 56 percent of white Catholics went for Trump versus 29 percent for Hillary Clinton in a two-way race, according to an ABC-Washington Post poll of registered voters. In May, he reached his all-time high with White Catholics when 64 percent of them gave him their support, while only 28 percent supported Clinton. (See graph below prepared by Catholic Democrats using ABC-Washington Post poll data provided by Langer Research Associates).



Things turned sour for Trump in June with his support from white Catholics dropping to 48 percent. He bounced back to 54 percent in July before the Republican convention, but then dropped to a low of 45 percent in August after the two conventions. It looked for a while like The Donald had finally crashed and burned, but he then recovered in September climbing to 59 percent, just higher than he was in March.

We don't have any October numbers from the ABC-Washington Post poll, but Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) just released a poll showing Trump dropping to 42 percent among white Catholics who are likely to vote. I included PRRI data as dotted lines at the right end of the graph above.​ PRRI's numbers have tracked closely with those from the ABC-Washington Post polls, so when the next ABC-Washington Post poll is released, we will undoubtedly see a similar drop among White Catholics in their support of Trump.

https://www.ncronline.org/blogs/faith-and-justice/election-white-catholics-are-riding-political-rollercoaster