The extreme dangers of a cease-fire

[Richard D]

I hesitate to post this because it is not in accord with current sentiments here. But the points made are valid and worthy of thought and discussion. It is an agonizing dilemma that goes far beyond the current soundbites.

Is a hostage deal in Israel's best interest?

The released terrorists will incentivize future kidnappings, pour gasoline onto the terrorist fires already raging, and catapult Hamas towards its intended takeover of Judea and Samaria.
By David M. Weinberg

According to government sources, the deal currently under discussion between Israel and Hamas would see between 500 and 1,000 Palestinian terrorists, 100 of them considered "heavy" terrorists (i.e., bloodthirsty butchers), released from Israeli jails in exchange for 22 live Israeli hostages, mainly women and other civilians, alongside the bodies of another dozen deceased hostages.

The plan also theorizes second and third tranches of terrorist/hostage exchange, but nobody really believes this likely. Too many conditions apply to the supposed next stages, ranging from international supervision of Gaza's borders (against Hamas's wishes) to IDF withdrawals. And nobody in Israel can say for sure that additional hostages are still alive/will still be alive for a second or third stage.

Many Israelis will say that the deal under discussion is sad but necessary and that it is the government's moral obligation to free as many hostages as possible as soon as possible despite the high price. The suffering of our hostages and their families is intolerable on personal and national levels. Giving freed hostages one big national hug will be the greatest triumph of all, something so necessary for Israel's collective spirit and its resilience over the long term. Many Israelis might feel this to be so even if the deal entails the complete withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. In other words, even if Hamas retains power and essentially wins the war.

https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/terrorists-for-hostages-the-agonizing-dilemma/

[marybourg]

1. The final paragraph sums it up:

“What Dvora Gonen is saying, I think, is beware and be aware. Making deals for the hostages held in Gaza now might be the most humanitarian and morally necessary thing in the world to do. Yet, it also may be the most dangerous and potentially disastrous thing Israel can do. The cost will pay out over a prolonged period and will be steep. An agonizing dilemma for Israel, indeed.”

[Richard D]

2. A nuanced conversation . . .

. . . few seem willing to undertake.

[Irish_Dem]

3. So an enemy knows it can get whatever it wants by just taking hostages.

[Richard D]

4. Exactly.

That is why a forced cease fire means Hamas won.

[Irish_Dem]

5. Yes.

Just taking hostages is a cheap and easy way to get whatever you want.
To win a war with minimal cost.

[Richard D]

6. And if the world (i.e. USA) forces the cease fire. . .

. . . it just means that more and more Oct 7 events will happen. Each worse than the last. Really, treating cancer comes to mind. You have to get it all or it will come back stronger and stronger.

[Irish_Dem]

7. Unless there is some behind the scenes plan to defeat Hamas,

you are correct.

All an enemy has to do is a quick smash and hostage grab.
The rest is easy for them.

Sit back and make the enemy give up.

[Richard D]

8. Especially so when . . .

. . . they have no care for the civilian population and see them as expendables who should be happy to be martyrs.

[Irish_Dem]

9. Yes the civilian population is just collateral damage.

Just like for Putin.