Effects on Global Heating on Hydroelectricity and Water Scarcity in China.

[NNadir]

The paper to which I'll refer in this post is this one: Water Scarcity Assessment of Hydropower Plants in China under Climate Change, Sectoral Competition, and Energy Expansion Linze Hou, Jianxun Yang, Chenyi Ji, Miaomiao Liu, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma, and Jun Bi Environmental Science & Technology 2024 58 (24), 10536-10547.

It is difficult for me to choose between the vast death toll from air pollution or global heating as to which I regard as the worst energy disaster of all time. The former has killed more people, if the paper I often cite from Lancet is accurate - I think that likely - but the latter is catching up, especially in indirect causes, the driver of the "indirect causes" being weather extremes presenting as extreme instability. (We are also seeing an increasing direct death toll of global heating in what is called "heat stroke."

Although it pales before these two ongoing energy disasters, a possible third highest energy disaster is not generally acknowledged, the 1976 serial dam collapses in China known collectively as the Banqiao disaster, which did not get all that much attention in the world press despite a vast death toll:

...The Chinese government prevented news of the failures from being reported on or broadcast nationally. As a result of this censorship, very little about the failures was known outside of the areas that were directly impacted. China's Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power released a study in 1989 which stated that 85,000 people died instantly due to the flood wave. This figure was later withdrawn and replaced with the current official accounting of 26,000 dead, all lost during the flood wave. Eight members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (the highest government advisory body) produced the estimate of 230,000 deaths, which was not widely disseminated until the 1995 Human Rights Watch report. These eight people were all high-ranking government officials and were among China's foremost experts in water conservancy and technology. Given their high ranks, it is likely that these individuals had access to confidential government reports on the 1975 disaster. These individuals also estimated that more than one-third of China's dams should be considered unsafe...

Case Study: Banqiao Dam (China, 1975)

A bill of goods has been sold to humanity that dependence on weather for energy is a good idea. It's actually a reactionary idea; dependence on weather for energy, including, including but not limited to the availability of biomass (partially through animal power), was largely abandoned by the dawn of the 20th century, this when the world population was a fraction of what it is now. This reactionary posturing is clearly failing, at least if a goal is weather stabilization. So called "renewable energy" has soaked trillions of dollars out humanity in the last decade and remains - at least in the case of the popular but disastrous "solar and wind" industries - trivial and useless if the goal is to address global heating or reduce the use of dangerous fossil fuels. (If the goal is to produce fabulous marketing of the status quo; wild eyed cheering; and wishful, if delusional, thinking, solar and wind are successes.) One can recognize this simply by monitoring the concentrations of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the air.

I have noted in this space many times that the readings recording increases as measured at the Mauna Loa CO₂ Observatory, which has functioned since 1959 are unambiguous. For example: A New Record Concentration for CO2, 427.98 ppm Has Been Set for the Mauna Loa CO2 Observatory's Weekly Average. It is clear the rate of global heating from dangerous and deadly fossil fuel waste is accelerating, not decelerating. Of the 50 highest recorded increases in comparison to weekly readings a Mauna Loa CO₂ Observatory with the same week ten years ago, all but two, in 2019, have occurred in this unfinished

2020s decade, 15 of them this year.

These data are recorded weekly, released every Sunday:

Week beginning on July 07, 2024: 426.25 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 422.37 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 399.92 ppm
Last updated: July 14, 2024

Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa

Hydroelectricity in China, and in India, the world's two most populous nations, depends on the Himalayan glaciers; it's not a pretty picture.

From the introduction of the paper cited at the outset:

Hydropower is recognized as a backbone of low-carbon electricity generation, serving as a viable alternative to fossil fuels. Currently, hydropower produces about 4.5 PWh of electricity, supplying one-sixth of global energy use per year, and the number is expected to double by the mid of this century. (1) Hydropower also plays a critical role in enhancing energy security. Reservoir hydropower plants with low operational costs and large storage capacities are an affordable source of flexibility in the electricity system, compensating for fluctuations in supply from renewable energy such as wind and solar photovoltaics. (2) The imperative of reaching net-zero emissions globally calls for a huge increase in hydropower ambitions to deliver a clean and reliable source of backup energy. (3)

As one of the most touted solutions to the climate crisis, hydropower itself is now facing rising water scarcity risks. Hydropower sector relies upon water resources of substantial and predictable volume. (4) Climate change induces changes in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff at various spatial scales, which increases the likelihood of heat waves and droughts and disrupts the stability of water resources. (5,6) Water scarcity limits the electricity generation capacity of hydropower plants, (7) and it is projected that global hydropower capacity would decrease by a maximum of 10–17% per month due to declining flows by the 2050s. (8) To fill the demand gap caused by reduced hydropower generation, local governments may shift the electricity generation mix toward fossil fuels, which increases carbon emissions and hinders the net-zero target. It is estimated that one standard deviation increase in water scarcity results in 15% expansions in natural gas generation and pollution emission in the US. (9) Disruptions in hydropower generation due to water scarcity are also sources of social and economic risk. In 2022, heatwave dried up Sichuan Province in China, where hydropower takes 80% of the province’s total power capacity. The local government issued an industrial power rationing plan, which led to cascading output losses through supply chain networks. (10) In this context, it is crucial to identify water scarcity risks of hydropower projects and implement targeted adaptation strategies to ensure water–energy security.

Moreover, global water demand has sextupled in the past century, and the competition between sectoral water uses further complicated water scarcity risks in hydropower sectors...

The paper offers a set of "scenarios."

Three scenarios, Ambitious (AM), Moderate (MO), and Mild (MI) predict future hydrological electricity demand from a high-to-low quantity by 2050 in China, respectively. In AM, the annual growth rate of electricity demand is projected to be 2.8% before 2030, which is expected to slow down afterward. By 2060, the expected annual electricity demand is estimated to reach 2870 TWh, with hydropower accounting for approximately 13%. In MO, the annual growth rate of electricity demand is expected to be 2.4% before 2030, and the projected electricity generation is set to reach 2550 TWh, with the proportion of hydropower to be 10% by 2060. In MI, the annual growth rate of electricity demand will be about 2% by 2030, and total electricity generation will reach 2300 TWh by 2060 with hydropower taking up about 10%...

The "scenarios" described are linked to the climate "scenarios" in the 2022 IEA World Energy Outlook; I've referred to these annual documents, including that of 2023, many times in this space. Even in the IEAs soothsaying, which I personally regard as overly optimistic handwaving, they do not predict an end to dangerous fossil fuels.

The numbers (2023) are here: 2023 World Energy Outlook published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Table A.1a on Page 264.



All of the soothsaying about the end of fossil fuels has proved delusional. Nothing we are doing is working (again, if "working" is defined as "if the goal is to address global heating or reduce the use of dangerous fossil fuels." )

As far as the soothsaying goes, it's not clear that the gas will be there, the oil will be there, but coal will be; the claim that wind and solar, unreliable forms of energy, are alternatives are coal is a lie supported by the availability of gas and oil. More importantly, it's not clear that the water will be there.

Hydroelectricity is the only form of so called "renewable energy" that can hold a night light to nuclear energy; and even that produces less than half of what nuclear energy produces in an atmosphere of vituperation and dishonest fearmongering.

It's at risk in China. A graphic from the paper:



The caption:

Figure 3. Hydropower water scarcity risks in China under future climate change, energy, and SSP scenarios. (a) The percentage of the total annual hydropower generation capacity exposed to at least moderate water scarcity risks under various scenarios. Combinations of three energy scenarios (MI, MO, and AM) and four climate change (RCP2.6–8.5) and socio-economic scenarios (SSP1–SSP5) are denoted by different colors on the top. Heatmap illustrates the proportion of plants at risk across scenarios and years. (b) Map of the distribution of hydropower plants in the scenario where the largest electricity generation is exposed to at least moderate water scarcity risk and the scenario where the largest number of stations are exposed to at least moderate water scarcity risk. These correspond to the AM energy scenario and SSP5-RCP8.5 climate scenario in 2040 and the SSP1-RCP2.6 climate scenario in 2035. (c) Seasonal hydropower water scarcity risks variation in the AM energy scenario.

China has a very successful operative nuclear power plant manufacturing infrastructure, now the best in the world. They now have 54 operating nuclear reactors, matching France, and 25 under construction.

Given the risks to its water supply, they'd better keep at it.

Their huge solar over capacity isn't doing shit to address climate change, all the cheering and pretending notwithstanding.

We can continue of course, to lie to ourselves; we're very good at that. However reality is breaking through.

Have a pleasant workweek.

[EarnestPutz]

1. As usual, this is very interesting, adding even more food for thought as we continue to try to open peoples eyes to.....

......the complexity of dealing with climate change, energy production, public health, agriculture, potable water supply, flood control, air quality, waste disposal, population and population movement, and a myriad of other problems to consider if we want to continue to eat, breathe, and turn on the lights. The word "complexity" doesn't do it justice.
Just read an article about the Three Gorges Dam in China and how climate change has affected it's original plans for power generation, flood control, erosion control and irrigation. Affected all of these things and more and none of them in a good way.

Edit: Had to look up "CCUS" - Carbon Capture, Storage and Utilization. Rather than just not producing CO2.
Gratuitous Addenda: "An atmosphere of vituperation and dishonest fearmongering" - NN, nicely put.