AMOC: Atlantic circulation collapse? The best (if still confusing to me) explanation have yet seen

[SorellaLaBefana]

Last edited Thu Dec 12, 2024, 08:19 AM - Edit history (1)

Among the many reasons why we ought to cut climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions as quickly and sharply as possible, the weakening of a system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, ranks high indeed. Several key scientific papers over the last couple of years have put this long-percolating climate concern back on the front burner. It’s hard to overstate how widespread and calamitous the impacts could be if this conveyor belt were to collapse – and it’s a process that could begin in the next several decades, if the new work is on target.

The AMOC is a vast oceanic loop that carries warm water northward through the uppermost Atlantic toward Iceland and Greenland, where it cools and descends before returning southward. It ferries colossal amounts of heat from the tropics toward the polar region, helping balance Earth’s climate machine just as it’s done on and off for millions of years...

Even though the new data would seem to diminish the gravity of recent AMOC trends in the North Atlantic, a decrease is still a decrease. And Volkov and colleagues stressed the importance of maintaining programs such as RAPID [UK/US programme studying the circulation]...

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/12/atlantic-circulation-collapse-new-clues-on-the-fate-of-a-crucial-conveyor-belt/

This is Part 1, Part 2 is scheduled to follow

There have been many headlines these past couple of years shouting that the AMOC has Already Collapsed, that it will Collapse Real Soon, or that Collapse Is Impossible—ie the usual nuanced discussion of science by the media industry.

Whilst the overall picture of what the AMOC is, and why it could either weaken or strengthen (as it has for apparently at least the past two million years) is clear, I have had difficulty understanding the details.

This article went a long way to helping my understanding. Although still cannot say that have an adequate grasp of the interplay between wind, temperature, current flow and ocean density—perhaps that is why there are people who spend their lives trying to understand such phenomena?

I'm looking forward to Part 2

--------------------------- Addendum 12/12/24

Part 2 is at:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/12/how-much-should-you-worry-about-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-conveyor-belt/

This second part examines in some detail what the most current studies show to be the most probable future of the AMOC. Also discussed are the opinions of some individual climate researchers as well as the statements of scientific consensus groups.

[John1956PA]

1. Thanks for posting. For the past ten years, these articles have been interesting. n/t