The apocalyptic mind-set

[Tobin S.]

Forgive me if I'm a bit off topic, but I don't think I am. I think this post falls under the "role of rationalism" section of the SoP. And, besides, it looks as if this forum could use the post anyway. I've been a subscriber here for a while and this place used to be a lot more active. What happened? Anyway, here we go.

A while back I identified in myself what I call the apocalyptic mind-set. It seemed to me that the world was imminently doomed. Between peak oil, climate change, war, economic issues, and the Mayans something was bound to do us in. When I think about it now, I had a really depressing outlook on life back then.

Then one day a thought occurred to me as I noticed that the world was failing to end: What if things aren't that bad? It turns out that they aren't.

But I see the apocalyptic mind-set all over the place, including a great deal here at DU. People seem convinced that humanity is doomed and the end is near for all of us. Where is that coming from? I don't think it's all just religion.

[Silent3]

1. Certainly most apocalyptic concerns are irrational, especially the mythology/religion based...

...predictions of End Times.

Concerns about various particular environmental issues, potential military conflicts, energy supplies and economic problems have certainly been overstated or completely wrong many times in the past, but I wouldn't want to totally dismiss the basis of many of those concerns, and some possible outcomes related to those concerns are certainly bad enough even when they aren't "the end of the world".

Where is all the apocalyptic doom and gloom coming from?

Partly I think it's just that people love the drama, even if they fear the nature of that drama. What could be more exciting, even if it's exciting in a negative way, than for the End of the World to be an event in your lifetime?

Partly I think it's an exaggerated way of expressing more realistic concerns and fears, like saying "I've had the worst day!" on a day which is clearly not the worst day of your life.

Partly I think it's superstitious "anti-jinx" thinking, that somehow by voicing concern over a problem that you're getting ahead of that problem and preventing it, sort of the opposite of being afraid you're "jinxing" yourself by being too certain of being successful or safe.

Sort of related to the last idea, I think there's an appeal to apocalyptic thinking which is much like the appeal of conspiratorial thinking -- even if people don't think their gaining control over preventing what they fear by thinking this way, they feel smarter, like they're not letting one pull the wool over their eyes, they feel more prepared for the worst by "knowing" that the End is Near, even if the "sheep" around them don't see it coming.

Then, of course, there's plenty of media hype over real and imagined problems.

All of that aside, however, I don't think "Don't worry, be happy!" is the most rationale view either. There are real concerns to consider about climate change, pollution, economic failure, energy shortages, and military conflict as a consequences of any those other problems, that could in various scenarios lead to hardship and death on enormous scales.

A 1% chance over the span of a century of the death of a billion people, and all of the suffering and misery that would go along with that, is worth much more concern and effort and focus than, say, preventing the next school shooting -- even though human beings, unfortunately, simply aren't that good at elevating long-term risks and seemingly remote but real concerns over more immediate concerns, especially those with strong emotional impact.

[Tobin S.]

2. It sounds like that could be it.

I didn't mean to imply that we don't have serious issues that we need to deal with, if it looked that way. I just think a lot of people would be happier if they didn't hold the belief that humanity is going extinct.

[Silent3]

3. Fear of true extinction of the human race is certainly exaggerated.

I don't think many people give human beings anywhere near enough credit for how adaptable and tenacious we can be. There isn't much that could kill us off so completely that we couldn't maintain at least a few scattered populations of hundreds or thousands, from which the human race could eventually spring back from all but the most cataclysmic events.

[AverageJoe90]

10. Yeah, you and I are pretty much alike in that regard, I would reckon.

[Warpy]

4. Part of that mindset is our awareness of our own death

Part of it is that part of ourselves that wants things to go as they are forever, just so they're predictable, and the knowledge that the only constant is change. Part of it is free floating anger that the world isn't the way we would like it to be, so come on, asteroid! But by golly, we're going to prepare so we can dig in and watch the show.

I don't find the doomsday mindset all that troubling, that asteroid might be on the way. What I find troubling is the conceit that we'll somehow be able to prepare for cataclysm and come out at the end smelling like a rose. Thinking about it with any honesty at all means you probably wouldn't want to survive it, that the living would envy the dead. Learning how to scrape a living out of a dead planet will not be enjoyable.

That's if the doomsday people do survive. My own guess is that some news article will push them over the edge, they'll announce "this is it!" and shoo the wife and kiddies into the bunker, and end up going stark staring stir crazy within a month. They'll likely be the first to go.

[uriel1972]

5. In the book "Naming the Anti-Christ"

The authors suggest that some of the attraction of eschatology is that it places the person at the centre of a catastrophic battle of good and evil and therefore makes them feel powerful in a world that otherwise would make them feel small and powerless.

[Adsos Letter]

6. A bit off-topic, but I'm curious...

You're the only other person I've "spoken" to who has read Fuller's book. Just curious as to what led you to it.

[uriel1972]

7. I was something of an avid reader

and found it in a bookstore that specialised in the off-beat. I was also fascinated by religion in all it's form and wanted to understand the mind-set.

Unfortunately I don't have the money/concentration span to read much anymore, but I did enjoy the book at the time.

So many Anti-Christs to choose from.

[dimbear]

8. I'm guessing mostly it comes from vanity. Folks just don't see the world getting by

without them in particular. It comforts the planet that it's been going on since we started walking upright.

[AverageJoe90]

9. To be honest.....

There are indeed some valid concerns for the well-being of civilization, and challenges we'll have to be facing in the next century or so thanks to climate change, resource issues, deforestation, etc., but I have also come to about the same conclusion as you have: Even though humanity is still facing challenges, and probably will have to from time to time until we either finally do peter out sometime in the far future(more than likely, giving way to new species of humans!), or the universe collapses, we've also survived plenty of catastrophes, quite a few of them worse than global warming, and maybe one or two that may have even been about as bad as, or worse than, full-scale nuclear war....(like Toba, or the comet strikes of 14-16k years ago, including those that might have created the Hudson Bay in Canada.).

To be honest, it's kinda frustrating to deal with at times, and more than a little on some subjects, but I do try to understand where these guys and gals are coming from....even if I don't always succeed at first.

[NoOneMan]

11. "What if things aren't that bad? It turns out that they aren't."

What if that mindset is merely a result of a different type of psychosis that does not let you perceive reality correctly as well?

I believe things are "bad" in terms of the human condition, and this general feeling has manifested into apocalyptic mindsets and religious prophecies. Look, we have about 1 in 8 people living the "good life" (maybe vast overestimate due to poverty in first world nations) and 1 in 8 people starving to death at the apex of agrarian civilization. Everyone in the middle suffers some degree of suffering and subjugation to fuel the elites' standard of living. We have epidemics, violence, disparity, chaos, famines, exploitation, etc. All these things impart psychological effects on the inhabitants of this earth that create all types of cognitive dissonance and psychosis. Is it any wonder that many people think we have been living in the "end times" for thousands of years? Because, if you aren't living it up like a middle-class American (or Roman), life can tend to suck. Frankly, if you think things aren't so bad (for everyone, not just you), it is more likely that you have some problem with perceiving reality.

But obviously, the apocalyptic mindset hasn't been accurate. Human suffering is no evidence of the "end" (but faith-based people don't need evidence to believe in and "end" and that it is coming). Until the 1940's, there really hasn't been anything that could rationally wipe everyone out (other than a celestial object). So it was all faith based bullshit from scared people trying to make sense of human suffering (that is very, very real).

Unfortunately, since the 1940's that has changed due to nuclear weapons, which we managed not to release. But in all our hurried exuberance, we unleashed an equally deadly threat from our over-consumption: climate change. Check out the recent national climate assessment, and tell me things "aren't that bad". Things are devastating. Terrifying. Catastrophic. Apocalyptic? Depends on where you live (so far).

[Tobin S.]

13. I am an expert on perceiving reality

I really do know what psychosis is like, having experienced it.

As I said up-thread, I didn't mean to imply that we don't have problems. Just that the world isn't ending any time now. I'm talking about people who mostly have what they need in life thinking they're doomed- like a lot of people who post on DU. I was assuming that my audience was Americans, not poverty stricken Africans.

[Springslips]

12. I have always had this theory.

Though I haven't found anything like it by experts that would support it.

Many people think the world is worse than it was in the past when many statistics and a reading of human history say that it is actually better. I speculate it is a cognitive error brought on by a shielded childhood and the later realization that the world is dangerous. When we are children our parents shield us from bad news, violence and stress. As children we perceive the world as save and moral. As we grow older we learn more of the world and the chaos that surrounds us. Instead of realizing that we are perceiving the world better, we concluded that the world is getting worse. So it isn't a jump when end of the world theories come that people would believe it since they falsely perceive the world getting worse and worse in their lifetime. "What have we become."

But yet in any real metric: disease, crime, war, oppression, we are much better than the good old day. Is it perfect? No. Are there challenges on the horizon? Yes. But if you come to me yelling about the sign of the times I will ask is it as bad as the Black Death? If the answer is no, call me when it is.