El Nio is nearing historic strength. What this means and when it will end.

[elleng]

This could be one of the strongest El Niño events observed over the past 75 years, new data shows.

*Growing water-temperature anomalies and strengthening abnormal wind patterns over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean suggest the extreme weather impacts for which El Niño is known will continue — if not accelerate — around the world. What happens in that zone of the Pacific has cascading effects around the globe.

That includes ongoing heat waves, drought and fires in Australia, deadly floods in Kenya, and drought and floods in parts of South America. In the United States, it is likely to mean more heavy rain along the Gulf Coast and in Florida, which has experienced major recent flooding, and wet and stormy conditions in California, a pattern that has been forecast to set in soon.

At the same time, scientists now see a coming end to the present El Niño.

Climate models suggest it is more likely than not that El Niño conditions dissipate by June, returning the Pacific to what are called neutral conditions — the absence of El Niño and its foil, La Niña — according to analysis published Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.'>>>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/15/el-nino-peak-impacts-climate/?

[walkingman]

1. We were just discussing this today. Here in Texas, El Nino usually means we have a wet winter

but just the opposite has been true for Central Texas this year. And this article seems to cover all the bases. On one hand it is near historic levels and at the same time is dissipating at a rapid pace - HUH?

I suspect we will have a very dry and hot summer this coming year - I'm not a climate scientist but that seems to be the norm these days. If this continues, which I suspect it will, I think the Chihuahuan Desert will expand to engulf the Austin area and change our landscape dramatically (far fewer trees).

When I see that COP28 was hosted by UAE and the oil producers that pretty much tells the story - we're not taking this seriously.

[elleng]

2. Yes, I was concerned about COPS28 also.

[slightlv]

3. My ultimate take away from what I read here

is that it's an historic El Nino, that they're basing claims on from past El Nino's. IOW, there's still operating like "normal" is the New Normal. Haven't we seen enough to know that the New Normal is like nothing we've experienced in the past? It's nearly Xmas here in the Midwest. And while I, personally, don't want them... we haven't seen many under freezing days. We've had one small snowfall. This isn't the normal when I was growing up here.

There is no "normal" anymore, IMO. Everything we experience... and have been experiencing... is precedent setting. But if something isn't done to reign in the fossil fuel industry soon, will anyone be around to compare precedents in the future?