If Hillary wins the nomination, do you expect her to beat Trump in November?

[Nye Bevan]

And for those who think that Hillary will lose, it would be interesting to see how you expect the vote to break down demographically, like how the female, African American, Latino vote and so on will be broken down.

40 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Unlimited
	Hillary will definitely beat Trump
	13 (33%)
	Hillary will probably beat Trump
	7 (18%)
	Could go either way
	9 (23%)
	Trump will probably beat Hillary
	9 (23%)
	Trump will definitely beat Hillary
	2 (5%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[cantbeserious]

1. If HRC Is The Democratic Nominee - Trump Will Handily Defeat Her In The General Election

eom

[angstlessk]

2. Trump will NOT beat Hillary

and I am a very stout Bernie supporter...of course Bernie would beat trump 6 ways to Sunday!

[cantbeserious]

3. Your Opinion Only - Others See The World Much, Much Differently

eom

[Trust Buster]

5. You have every right to vote for Trump by why agitate on a Democratic site ?

[Fawke Em]

15. Believing the Republican will win doesn't mean you're voting for that person.

I knew in 1988 that Bush would beat Dukakis, but I still voted for Duke.

[basselope]

8. Trump beats her very easily.

There is somethings in this race people don't understand and haven't been paying attention to.

First: The polling has been fairly, consistently WRONG in favor of Hillary and other establishment republicans. If you look at the vast majority of the polls on the democratic side, Bernie has FAR outperformed expectations.. most recently Indiana, where polling said he would lose by 6.8, but he won by 6. Indiana Republican polled Trump up by 10, but it was Trump by 17. PA had Trump by 21, but he won by 36. PA Dem had Hillary by 16, but she won by 12. Maryland had trump by 21, but he won by 36.

So why is this happening so often? It is because they are using MOSTLY LIKELY VOTER polls. However, because this election is about establishment vs anti-establishment (in both primaries) it is attracting people who don't qualify as "likely voters". These "unlikely voters" are people voting for the anti-establishment candidates.


Second: The GOP has spent the last 8 years making voting EXTREMELY DIFFICULT for democrats in some very key states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc..) They have perfected a strategy for suppressing the democratic vote (by reducing polling locations in urban areas, meaning long lines... voter ID laws, etc..) However, these conditions are friendly towards GOP voting areas (Suburbs or urban) where you don't have large crowds.

This means that for a democratic nominee to win, they need to inspire OVERWHELMING turnout. Not Obama 2012 numbers.. but Obama 2008 numbers. I think we can ALL agree that Clinton will be VERY VERY lucky if she even comes close to Obama 2012 numbers.


When you combine those two points, you realize these polls showing Clinton winning in states like Florida (RCP average of 5) Ohio (Clinton RCP average of + 3.5) North Carolina (RCP average of Clinton +3.3) Even Pennsylvania (an average of Clinton +7 ) aren't very safe numbers at all.

Combine the complete unreliability of the polls tilted against anti-establishment candidates (meaning Trump is a hell of a lot closer than those polls show) along with voter suppression tactics which is sure to shave 2-3% off the democratic totals.. and you have a pretty clear Trump victory.



Couple of caveats:

IF a 3rd party candidate comes along, it can throw a monkey wrench in everything b/c it could split the anti-establishment vote.

IF the GOP really doesn't seat a SC justice, Clinton COULD use this as a wedge issue to drive turnout. Otherwise.. she doesn't have the platform or appeal to drive turnout.

[basselope]

4. Very true and so many people don't understand why and how.

[MadBadger]

6. So explain...

[basselope]

9. Here...

It's a cut and paste from a post I just made (I think in this thread)



There is somethings in this race people don't understand and haven't been paying attention to.

First: The polling has been fairly, consistently WRONG in favor of Hillary and other establishment republicans. If you look at the vast majority of the polls on the democratic side, Bernie has FAR outperformed expectations.. most recently Indiana, where polling said he would lose by 6.8, but he won by 6. Indiana Republican polled Drumpf up by 10, but it was Drumpf by 17. PA had Drumpf by 21, but he won by 36. PA Dem had Hillary by 16, but she won by 12. Maryland had trump by 21, but he won by 36.

So why is this happening so often? It is because they are using MOSTLY LIKELY VOTER polls. However, because this election is about establishment vs anti-establishment (in both primaries) it is attracting people who don't qualify as "likely voters". These "unlikely voters" are people voting for the anti-establishment candidates.


Second: The GOP has spent the last 8 years making voting EXTREMELY DIFFICULT for democrats in some very key states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc..) They have perfected a strategy for suppressing the democratic vote (by reducing polling locations in urban areas, meaning long lines... voter ID laws, etc..) However, these conditions are friendly towards GOP voting areas (Suburbs or urban) where you don't have large crowds.

This means that for a democratic nominee to win, they need to inspire OVERWHELMING turnout. Not Obama 2012 numbers.. but Obama 2008 numbers. I think we can ALL agree that Clinton will be VERY VERY lucky if she even comes close to Obama 2012 numbers.


When you combine those two points, you realize these polls showing Clinton winning in states like Florida (RCP average of 5) Ohio (Clinton RCP average of + 3.5) North Carolina (RCP average of Clinton +3.3) Even Pennsylvania (an average of Clinton +7 ) aren't very safe numbers at all.

Combine the complete unreliability of the polls tilted against anti-establishment candidates (meaning Drumpf is a hell of a lot closer than those polls show) along with voter suppression tactics which is sure to shave 2-3% off the democratic totals.. and you have a pretty clear Drumpf victory.



Couple of caveats:

IF a 3rd party candidate comes along, it can throw a monkey wrench in everything b/c it could split the anti-establishment vote.

IF the GOP really doesn't seat a SC justice, Clinton COULD use this as a wedge issue to drive turnout. Otherwise.. she doesn't have the platform or appeal to drive turnout.

[kathyfullerton]

7. Another poll on candidate's power

This poll rates candidates on how successfully they use their power - please take the poll and see where Hillary ranks!

http://powerinthepubliceye.org/power-poll/

[RobertEarl]

10. She'll beat herself

She almost did it with Bernie. But the media is just licking their chops for her in a GE, so they are sticking with their best chance for revenue stream.

That's why they are ignoring Bernie. That and Bernie just flat scares them, what with his People Power ideas.

[bigwillq]

11. I think Hillary probably wins

I did not expect Trump to be R nominee, but the people are voting for him, so anything's possible.

[Redwoods Red]

12. She should, but Trump has been a real wild card so far.

"He'll be out by August."

"He'll never be the Republican nominee."

"No way he beats Hillary."

I'm just a teensie bit nervous.

[Jamaal510]

13. I voted "probably"

because nothing is a given. While her polling against him looks good, there are still factors that can come into play such as voter ID laws and media framing of both candidates. With a candidate like Trump (who has no experience and is notorious for offensive statements) being taken as seriously as he has, I won't take anything for granted.

[Reter]

14. Trump will beat her with ease

I don't want him to, but she can't win a GE.

[Nye Bevan]

17. Maybe a woman who doesn't want "some form of punishment" for having an abortion?

I'm guessing that you are male.

[Nye Bevan]

19. And you're indifferent between Donald "blood coming out of her wherever" Trump

who wants "some form of punishment" for women who have abortions, and Hillary Clinton?

Really?

[Nye Bevan]

22. He was up there on the stage saying he would order terrorists' FAMILIES to be killed.

But if you want to help him win by staying home in November, that is your privilege.

[speaktruthtopower]

21. Way too early ...

Trump is still defining himself. He's a wild card.

[baldguy]

24. Note there's a difference between expecting Trump to win, and HOPING Trump will win.

Seems to me too many Sanders fans are on the "hoping" side.