We May Just Be This Screwed: Donald Trump Has an Easier Path to Victory Than You Think

[LiberalArkie]

By Musa Al-Gharbi / Salon May 30, 2016

As the 2016 presidential primaries got underway, there seemed to be several incontrovertible truths: Hillary Clinton’s nomination was inevitable, and Donald Trump stood no chance. Yet, here we are six months before the election, and Trump has seized the Republican nomination while Clinton is still working to box out Bernie Sanders’ insurgency (without losing his voters, who it turns out, may peel off after all).

Nonetheless, the prevailing narrative is that while there is now a chance that Trump could actually win in November, it’s basically Hillary Clinton’s election to lose. Pundits focus on “fundamentals,” like Hillary’s superior fundraising, analytics, or ground game; however, these haven’t proven terribly predictive this cycle. And by focusing on conventional elements, analysts seem to be overlooking novel dynamics which are likely more important—specifically, the public’s persistent and negative perception of Hillary Clinton, the incumbency handicap, and a phenomenon I call “negative intersectionality.”

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In short, contrary to prevailing narratives, the deck seems to be stacked against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Of course, there’s always the hope that Trump could implode. But so far he has demonstrated an amazing ability to lean into gaffes and controversies, and to control the terms of debate. And with his primary buttoned up, Trump is softening and moderating his “suggestions” for the general electorate—and again, he is empowered to make radical shifts in a way his opponent is not.

More broadly, it would be a strategic blunder for Clinton to make her campaign a referendum on Trump: negative partisanship elections tend to favor Republicans. This is because Democrats are heavily dependent on high turnout from irregular voters in order to win national contests. However, when these voters are asked to choose between the “lesser of two evils,” they tend to just stay home. If this happens in November, Clinton loses.

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http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/we-may-just-be-screwed-donald-trump-has-easier-path-victory-you-think

[Trust Buster]

1. If the country is unbalanced enough to elect an unqualified bigot, it says much more about the

American people than it does Hillary.

[yeoman6987]

3. All this means is that Hillary will have to work at getting more voters to support her

It's up to her. It can be done if she wants it.

[Trust Buster]

6. Nope. Trump stands alone. If the American people are foolish enough to vote for this

Unqualified and classless bigot, it's totally on the American people.

[yeoman6987]

9. No. That doesn't mean that. It literally means Hillary will need more voters to

Get her the win. That's how elections work.

[Trust Buster]

12. Nope, Americans have a propensity to avoid personal responsibility. They won't get away with it

in this case. If they elect Trump, then the American people deserve everything they get including the responsibility for electing a dangerous carnival barker. Trump is deceiving no one. He is who he says he is.

[Jester Messiah]

17. No, it means that the Repubs pitched the Dems a lazy softball and we whiffed.

Hillary is a bad enough candidate that Donald Trump of all people can beat her. Why in the name of all that's good would any sane party put her up as the nominee? And spare me that "will of the voters" shit, there are plenty of voters on either side and this is what super delegates are for.

[Skink]

2. Is this the HRC excuse thread?

[LiberalArkie]

5. I think when it is all said and done and the numbers looked at.

The turnout for Hillary will be an average number of Democratic party voters turning out.

The turnout for Trump will be an average number of Republican party voters turning out plus a number of rightwing people who have never voted before.

The new people that voted for Bernie in the primaries that have never voted before will go back to the status of "non voting Americans" which is usually around 40% of Americans.

[FSogol]

11. Don't worry, African Americans, Latinos, and Women will turn out in record numbers to

prevent Trumpy from winning. Record landslide for the Democratic party.

[LiberalArkie]

14. And there is also the possibility that the Libertarian party may pull most of Trumps

new Republicans over to their side and Stein could pull a lot of the new Democrats over to hers. It is still early but could be a nail-biter in November or December or January.

[FSogol]

16. The Libertarians will continue their streak of being a non-factor in US Politics. n/t

[Robbins]

15. Don't be so sure

Republicans are excited with her as the nominee.

Independents don't like her

and clintons and supporters have done all they can to drive bernie supporters away.

[Sheepshank]

4. This should be moved to GD.

[LiberalArkie]

7. It mentioned a Democratic party candidate. Thus GD-P

[Sheepshank]

8. You are trumpeting Trump and my OPINION is this should be in GD

[LiberalArkie]

10. Take a break..

[bonemachine]

18. It's just how things are around here right now, I guess

I posted a thread that assumed Clinton would win the primary and the general election and it still got locked in GD :/

[oberliner]

13. All the more reason to work as hard as we can on her behalf

(Assuming she is the nominee)

We ought to fight Trump will all we've got!