Can the Democratic Party rise again? Yes and heres the first big thing to watch.

[RandySF]

If you care about whether the Democratic Party can rebuild itself anytime soon out of the smoking wreckage left behind by the disastrous 2016 elections, something very important is happening a lot sooner than you think.

There are more than three dozen gubernatorial races taking place in the next two years. And they could do a tremendous amount to set the party on the path out of the wilderness in the Age of Donald Trump — with potentially significant national ramifications that could stretch well into the next decade, for instance by having a substantial influence over the redistricting of House seats, which could help determine control of the Lower Chamber in the 2020s.

Of course, the current state of affairs is dire indeed. Not only has the Democratic Party been shut out of Washington, where the GOP controls both the White House and Congress, but the carnage is widespread on the state level, too: Next year, Republicans will control more than 30 governors’ mansions nationwide, and have total control (meaning GOP governors and GOP control of both state legislative chambers) in some 25 states. By contrast, Democrats will have total control in all of five states. The 2018 Senate map looks grim for any prospects of a Dem takeover, and the House is all but certain to remain out of reach in 2018 as well.

But the other part of the story is that, in 2017 and 2018, there will be a total of 38 gubernatorial contests. Here, courtesy of the Democratic Governors Association, is the 2017-2018 gubernatorial map:

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484


https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/11/25/can-the-democratic-party-rise-again-yes-and-heres-the-first-big-thing-to-watch/

[LisaM]

1. Given the razor-thin margins in the swing states, and the Dem's huge lead in the popular vote...

This is eminently doable. I think our ideas and messages resonate. We are being gamed by the system.

[FBaggins]

19. One thing to be cautious of there

That "huge lead" in the popular vote is almost entirely from California (where we weren't in danger of losing anything) and was in the Presidential race.

Republicans held a larger popular vote lead in House races.

[LisaM]

31. Yes, but the margin in most swing states is only 1 or 2 percent.

And I think that California is often a leader in how the rest of rest of the country goes.

[Exilednight]

2. We COULD win NV, NM, FL, GA, OH and MI and possibly ME.

The rest of the south is stay R and the west.

[Ken Burch]

4. Key for Ohio is making sure Strickland doesn't try for a comeback.

His blowout loss in the Senate race proves he'll never be electable at a statewide level again.

[RandySF]

5. What about MD and IL?

[Exilednight]

7. Off cycle elections are hard, especially in Illinois after the Blagojevich debacle.

[Ace Rothstein]

13. Rauner will go down if we have a halfway decent candidate.

A ton of voters voted for Rauner who voted Dem in the other statewide races.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

8. Dems could easily win in Maine IF no liberals or lefts vote third party

That is how LePage the moron won twice.

[Exilednight]

10. Then the state party needs to pick a candidate that can win those voters.

If they pick a Hillary type, they'll los again.

Need someone who can energize the base.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

11. The only reason LePage won is because it was a 3 way race

The majority of people did NOT want LePage and close to the end the 3rd party candidate, Eliot Cutler, began to surge and people voted for him thinking he was going to be able to beat LePage. The Republicans were loyal to their party and the non-Lepage voters split their voted between two candidates, Eliot Cutler and Libby Mitchell. The second time LePage won was another three way race with Eliot Cutler and Mike Michaud. These were not bad candidates...Eliot Cutler was a spoiler that divided all the non-LePage voters. In 2010 LePage only got 38% of the vote and was Governor. I'm not sure about the second time around because I moved away due to lack of jobs.

[brooklynite]

18. Going forward, Maine will use ranked-choice voting.

Last edited Thu Dec 1, 2016, 10:22 AM - Edit history (1)

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

42. Yeah, if they implement it by then... but I'm glad the people voted for it.

That means they need to take action... I just expect that certain people will try to get in the way of it happening. Plus they do have to work out the implementation details. Honestly, I will be impressed if the system is set up by 2018.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

43. 1st time was actually a 5 way race that gave us LePage in the first place - which was awful

Ranked choice would have saved us all from him if it was in place back then. 2nd time three way race, but LePage was the incumbent and Michaud was a good guy, but I think I lot of people turned against him when they found out he was gay. He was the 2nd district US rep for years before then. That was really unfortunate. Culter wasn't helping the situation either as you noted.

[Jersey Devil]

26. You left out NJ

Christie is finally out next year.

[napi21]

29. Ga? Hmmmm. I don't know. We ran Sam Nunn'ps daughter in the last election and we were

feeling pretty good about our chances, but we lost. a. has been heavily gerrymandered and that's big problem. 2020 is the next census and it would be terrific if we could get some Dems in the legislature and a Dem Governor by then. Somebody who knows a wole lot more about the potential Dem candidates needs to get their butt in gear NOW. I hate to say this but if they need to lie to tell voters what they want to hear, then damn it LIE!

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

39. Supposed to have our ranked choice voting system by 2018...

We shall see on that one. I have a feeling people like LePage and such will drag their feet on implementing ranked choice voting system. No idea who would be running. I'm just hoping no assholes this time. People have been talking about Susan Collins giving up her senate seat to run for Maine gov. I don't know if she would do that though and she is a good senator. I think she would be a good governor actually. She has always put Maine people first and she is thoughtful and respectful. She is one of few good republicans left.

[Ken Burch]

3. Can Walker run for another term? What about LePage in Maine?

Those two seats would be top on our targets, from what I can see.

And do we have a strong potential candidate in MA? That state should be the easiest retake for us, if the state party can just get its act together.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

9. Nope, LePage can't run again

Thank God. He's a moron.

[Ken Burch]

12. What was it that some people liked about the guy?

Even allowing for the fact that the anti-LePage vote was split, he significantly increased his vote share when he was re-elected.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

15. Tea Party morons mostly...

There is a segment of rural Maine Republicans who have been convinced that people who get state assistance are all pill popping methadone taking leeches who have dozens of kids, collect massive amounts of welfare and sit around drinking Allen's coffee brandy all day long. Oh and they go buy many cases of bottled water, dump it out and return the bottles for 5 cents each so they can buy cigarettes and booze.

There aren't enough jobs to go around so a lot of people need help. Those fortunate enough to have jobs (some of them) have been taught to hold those who don't in contempt for "taking their tax dollars." Those are the LePage fans...they are mostly just dumb or old and cranky. That only makes up for about 25% of the voters. Some just don't pay much attention or vote for the least polished one. LePage is like the idiot drunk uncle you are embarrassed to be related to. He's just plain dumb...I mean REALLY dumb. He thought BPA would cause women to grow little beards if they eat from containers microwaved that have the substance in it. He went on a drunken threatening tirade on a voicemail. He's a blowhard. He's like Twitter Trump.

I did not know or associate with a single person who voted for or liked LePage even when I lived there. It's very common knowledge that the reason he won was due to the 3 way split. I'd like to see Stephen King run. He lives there and has a home in Bangor. He does a great deal for the community and I think he'd easily win.

[Ken Burch]

16. The other thing working in King's favor...

...is that, based on his books, a lot of folks would be scared of voting AGAINST him:

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

17. True, lol

He's definitely into politics, so maybe he'll run, but I doubt it. Maine especially needs to really focus on preventing the 3 way vote split. Now if Susan Collins were to decide to run she'd easily win because she has a lot of cross over appeal because she's pretty moderate.

[BumRushDaShow]

38. I think the issue with King and his reduced (although potent) participation

goes back to some frustrating physical limitations he has talked about that were the result of being hit by that van in the late-90s.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

41. I keep thinking Angus King when I see King... he was already gov years ago. n/t

[BumRushDaShow]

44. Yup I know!

But then I keep thinking "beef" when I see "Angus".

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

40. I think LePage had an edge the second time because the dem was revealled to be gay

So he got some more folks just because they didn't want a gay gov unfortunately.

[TheLibIn615]

20. Walker can and is going to.

Jesus Christ, it can't be that hard to beat that motherfucker.

[Ken Burch]

23. The big thing is, they can't re-nominate the same guy he beat the first two times...

...or the centrist they all knew was doomed to lose to him in '14.

Needs to be a real fighter this time.

[TheLibIn615]

25. And then there is his gerrymandered legislature

And their appalling voter suppression tactics.

I agree with you on Mary Burke. I liked her but she was about as inspiring as a root canal. Having lived in Madison while that was going on, it was easy to forget just how wide Walker's base is geographically.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

27. Isn't Mark Ruffalo from Wisconsin?

Draft some famous people that voters love to run. He was awesome in Law and Order.

[Historic NY]

6. 2018 needs to be the firewall, if people sit it out, its done until 2020 or 2024

[GoCubsGo]

14. SC will also be somewhat of an incumbent.

With Nikki Haley leaving to be Don the Con's Ambassador to the UN, her replacement, Henry McMaster will likely run for re-election. He is a Trump toady, which COULD be a problem for him in a couple of years, depending on how much damage is done. Technically, he won't be re-elected, but odds are, he'll return for a full term, barring the people getting really pissed off at him.

[ancianita]

21. Exactly. Thanks for your positive post with solid strategy that will make a real difference.

A strong party leadership that's willing to donate all-out support to gubernatorial races is about winning.

[Fast Walker 52]

22. That's good but I think the bigger issue is to win the house in 2018, which is possible if the GOP

does away with Medicare. Or at least Trump is bound to fuck up enough to have people want an opposition party in there against him.

[Ken Burch]

24. The only way we win back the House is by doing what the DCCC refused to do

from 1994 through most of the Dubya era, and in '10 and '14-nationalize the campaign and fire people up. We need something that actually generates enthusiasm and makes people feel that voting matters.

[Fast Walker 52]

32. definitely we need better leadership from the DCCC, which obviously has been not doing enough

in recent years. I really don't know the details and ins and outs on how to do this, and I know it will be hard, but I can't think of a more pressing issue for the party right now.

[kcr]

34. I agree that better leadership is needed, but

We need to do away with the notion that pointing out how bad the GOP is is fearmongering, and stop with coddling people on our side who state they will stay home or vote third party. That should be shamed, not featured as a tactic. We continue to hobble ourselves with that nonsense and will always be on the fringes as long as it prevails. Should Dems run quality candidates? Absolutely and they should be called on it when they don't. But that does not absolve voters their duty and obligation from being informed and I don't give them a pass either. If we encourage our own base to sit elections out or throw their votes away, it only weakens our voice and our power, not the other way around. Politicians are skittish and will only run where the safe and reliable votes are. It's cheaper that way, too. Often when Dems are running the bad candidates, it's because they think they're running safe. We can encourage more with carrots than we can with threats.

[Jersey Devil]

28. Also, NC will have a special election for legislature in 2017

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028316671

[CBHagman]

30. People must learn to show up for elections.

There was a drop in participation even in the presidential election years such as 2012. I suspect too many people are not really aware what each midterm election means for their own future, let alone the future of the country.

In particular, younger voters are going to have to learn to love turning out for the midterms. As a bloc, they're more likely to sit things out. It's been that way for some time (people tend to participate more as they grow older), but if they want to make policy, millennials are going to have to rock the vote.

[Fast Walker 52]

33. that is for sure-- because elections really matter

[kcr]

35. Yes a million to this. And we need to get in the habit of encouraging that a lot more on the left.

There is way too much of the opposite, as I was just saying in another post on this thread. Way too much complaining about how bad the candidates are, and how unenthusiastic everyone is. We don't have a voting culture that has a deep sense of voting obligation on our side. There's the misguided notion that threatening to withhold votes will somehow get better candidates. It's never worked, but somehow it persists. It's really too bad, because it costs us.

[CBHagman]

46. I know! And it's really ceding power.

I had this conversation with my neighbor the other night about this. He was saying that the candidates should excite people. But elections are going to take place whether the voters are excited or not, and the reps are going to get two years in the House and the victorious Senate candidates six years in the Senate however people feel about the individual candidates. It's what comes after the election that's going to matter.

I fear that that the charismatic Barack Obama's victories have given more than a few people in the States false expectations about what candidates and success look like. Sometimes success comes in the form of an unexciting but equally hardworking candidate.

[uhnope]

36. what a joke. Dem must kick out the corporatists and bring in the Sanders/Warren

or the party is dead forever and the experiment is over

[Tiggeroshii]

37. Control of state houses and governors means control over redistricting in the state.

Which means a nearly guaranteed Democratic House of Representatives in 2020.

Getting a majority of the state houses is key to coming back big in 2020. And seeing how the VRA is probably entirely gone within the next couple of years, state houses in the south will be key to turnout in states with heavily restrictive voter ID laws.

[muntrv]

45. Turnout in 2018 needs to be big. Democrats don't turnout in midterms like they do in

presidential elections.

[paleotn]

47. And Maine can finally get rid off Gov. LePew

[uppityperson]

49. How do you suggest we energize them?