2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumYouth, yes. Organized labor, yes. Rural Dem outreach, yes. But enough with the WCW narrative.
The "working class whites/economic messaging" narrative simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny. We've been over this and over this and over this. One last time:
1) Economic justice is already a major component of the Democratic Party platform.
2) Clinton had a far more substantive economic message than Trump did. "We're looking at jobs--big league jobs" is a message that resonates with simpletons.
3) Clinton won among those most hurt by the recession, among those individuals who make $50,000 per year or less, among those who said the economy was the most important issue. She lost among those obsessed with terrorism (i.e., assuming all Muslims are terrorists) and immigration (i.e., assuming all Mexican immigrants, in particular, are rapists and drug dealers).
4) The WCW narrative implies that working class POC must not care about economics, because they voted for Clinton in overwhelming numbers. And many WCW also voted for Clinton, by the way.
5) Major proponents of the TPP, including Rust Belt candidates, won with ease.
And on and on and on. Seriously, the WCW narrative died a long time ago. Bury it already. Or cremate it. Something, anything. Because it's really stinking up the joint.
CaliforniaPeggy
(152,119 posts)forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)WCW Trump voters went up slightly, but the real problem is Dem votes declining from 2012.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It's less the message and more the messenger. Not to mention the unprecedented FBI interference. And voter suppression, which became much easier following the 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision.
That's not to say there aren't things the Dems should do differently. Obama was probably right to suggest the Clinton campaign should have done more to minimize the losses in the rural areas of purple states, so as to carry more of those states. There are rural Dems (not all of whom are white) in states like Iowa. And I would hope the 2020 ticket is younger.
But the crux of the WCW/economic messaging narrative is and always has been ridiculous. It crumbles under the weight of critical thought.
FBaggins
(27,722 posts)How large was Obama's victory among "working-call whites" for whom the economy was the #1 issue in 2008?
4) The WCW narrative implies that working class POC must not care about economics, because they voted for Clinton in overwhelming numbers.
In the key battleground states... how "overwhelming" was it compared to 2008 (both in terms of turnout and percent support)?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Though she did end up with about the same number of votes as Obama received 4 years ago.
First of all, Obama was replacing Bush. Obama is younger and had less political history to critique (Clinton was victimized by decades' worth of hate--someone else with the exact same message and strategy would have carried those battleground states, even if that person also faced unprecedented FBI interference).
Obama preceded the 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision, which enabled massive voter suppression.
Throughout US history, there's been a white backlash against racial progress (including the election of Obama and his executive action that produced DACA)--that backlash has built up over the last 8 years and was exploited by an overtly bigoted candidate who was endorsed by the KKK and sucked all of the media air(waves) out of the room. Add that to the overt misogyny in a race against the first major party female candidate in history.
And, yes, Obama did more outreach to the rural areas of purple states like Iowa.
None of which changes the fact that the "working class whites/economic messaging" narrative collapses under scrutiny.
FBaggins
(27,722 posts)The issue here isn't whether or not she was "as strong a candidate". The question is whether or not she was relatively weaker/stronger among "WCWs" and "POC"... and, if so, why that might be.
The "narrative" doesn't collapse if the gap is large enough to account for a small shift in some key states.
And, yes, Obama did more outreach to the rural areas of purple states like Iowa.
Now that's an interesting statement. You mean it might be possible to reach out to them without sacrificing support among other Democratic groups? Shocking!
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As for doing more outreach to rural areas of purple states:
In another thread, the reaction to a piece by Alex Roarty suggests some may be conflating 2 completely different arguments. I don't really find anything objectionable with Roarty's article, aside from the silly Nancy Larson quote at the end (as if urbanites and suburbanites aren't "ordinary people" . After this year's election, Obama made the point that he had visited a lot of rural towns so as to not lose those towns as badly as he would have if he hadn't visited them (minimizing losses and maximizing gains are both important). The Roarty piece is essentially saying the same thing, along with pointing out 2 common sense ideas:
1) Rural Dems (not all of whom are white) are more likely to vote if the Dems do outreach in their communities (do some advertising and, if not sending the candidate there, at least send some surrogates who have rural experience--Bill Clinton, for instance). Just as Dems do GOTV in blue areas, they need to do GOTV in red areas.
2) Campaign in part on bringing broadband Internet to rural communities. That's a specific, sensible proposal.
That's totally different than the somewhat popular DU narrative about "working class whites" and blue collar workers. That narrative suggests Dems aren't already fighting for *both* economic and social justice. That narrative suggests that Clinton didn't speak enough about economic issues, such as addressing jobs or the rising costs of health insurance. Some even claim she spent more time on "transgender bathrooms." And that's all bullshit. That whole narrative is ridiculous. Clinton's website, her speeches and her debate performances all addressed those economic issues at length and with great substance (to a *much* greater extent than Trump did). Plus, that narrative implies that working class POC don't care about economic issues, which is absurd. And there really is no excuse for supporting Trump.
For tens of millions of Americans, racism, sexism, xenophobia, heterosexism, Christian supremacy and single issues (like abortion) take precedence over everything else. Throughout US history, there's been a white backlash to racial progress (such as the election of Obama and his executive action that produced DACA). There isn't a whole lot Dems can do about that--a sizable portion of the electorate (35+ percent) is simply not reachable, and that's always been the case. Also, that major proponents of the TPP won (with ease) and that the re-election rate of incumbents was even higher than normal suggests a major flaw in the anti-trade and anti-establishment narratives. And let's not lose sight of the fact that tens of millions subscribe to patently false beliefs, which seems to be getting worse all the time in this age of infotainment.
I wrote about all of those things (and more) in my long, link-filled post-election essay.
As for the idea that Obama voters can't be racist, one has much to learn if one engages in such simplistic thinking as that (it's on par with the classic "I have a black friend" defense). One may want to start with this article: "Why Did Some White Obama Voters Go for Trump?"
Let's face it, Clinton was victimized by decades of hate (much of it totally irrational and rooted in sexism and misogyny). The exact same message with the exact same strategy would have won had the messenger not been Clinton.
And we can't overlook voter suppression (Shelby County v. Holder decision was devastating). Or the FBI's unprecedented interference. Or the deadful media. And when it comes to House races, we can't overlook gerrymandering as a huge factor.
But, yes, Dems should do more outreach to rural communities, particularly where there are POC. The crux of the message doesn't have to change much. Dems just need to show up in more places (and have a younger ticket).
FBaggins
(27,722 posts)Let me be clearer. If (just as an example - I don't know the actual figures) WCW's in Michigan who said that the economy was their top issue were 70-30% supporters of Obama in 2012... then the fact that they narrowly preferred Clinton this time around would not be evidence that "working class whites/economic messaging" was a dead narrative. In fact, it would demonstrate just the opposite.
You've shown the second data point (that she maintained a slight majority of both demographics). Until you compare it to the same statistic in prior exit polls, you can't claim to have addressed the issue.
I don't disagree with the rest of your points here.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Any *one* of which could account for the narrow margins in various battleground states.
Again, working class voters as a whole favored Clinton. But reasons already enumerated (none of which include economic messaging) account for why Clinton didn't do as well as Obama (a rare political star), such as the simple fact that people have been hating Clinton for decades (her message is irrelevant for those who never were going to vote for her). And the fact that Obama was replacing a highly unpopular Bush Administration (a party doesn't often control the White House for more than 2 consecutive terms).
If working class whites have much different expectations than working class persons of color, one should consider why that is. But one need not "consider" for very long.
zipplewrath
(16,692 posts)The problem with alot of these numerical analyses is that Clinton overwhelmingly won the popular vote. So on a national level she did "well" with almost any group you want to analyze. Her problem was a very small group of people in a few states.
However, in the larger picture, it never should have been this "close". We lost in states that were formerly solid democratic states. But the reality is that those trends have been shifting for years. We've been losing all over the country. And we lost against the most "beatable" candidate one can imagine. In a real sense this is probably a good example of a "fluke". Move a few people around and the election is completely different. None the less, we should have been concerned about alot of these results even if we have won. We were losing voters that should have been "tried and true".
There are alot of reasons this has happened. Some of them are long term trends of the democratic party, and some were more immediate choices we made leading into this race. All of them contributed. And we're going to have to address alot of them if we expect to improve. We can't always depend on having a candidate with the charisma of a Bill or Barack. We have to be able to win with Gores of the world.