Hillary's popular vote edge hits 2.0%

[BzaDem]

With a new batch of votes from California, HRC's popular vote margin has finally hit 2.0%!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/805973874932326400

Too bad it doesn't affect our government in any way

[Uniquitous]

1. Such is America.

You can't just get numbers, you gotta get area too.

[Tiggeroshii]

2. This officially makes Nate Silver wrong

Who basically swore on his grave that Hillary will win the electoral college if she won with more than a 2% margin in the popular vote.

[Raster]

3. Well, for all we know, Clinton DID WIN the most electoral votes...

...that is, if all the lawfully cast votes were honestly counted.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Hopefully we find out.

[BzaDem]

5. Nate Silver kept writing about how HRC was more likely to lose despite winning PV

than almost everyone else was saying. He was the only forecaster to keep harping on the unusual high uncertainty, and how a close PV would likely indicate a Trump EC win.

I'm not familiar with him "swearing on his grave" about a two percent threshold (though I vaguely remember him mentioning that she was likely safe if she won by over 2). But the exact threshold is really not particularly interesting compared to the fact that he was the only major forecaster to talk about how this was more likely than people think. Yet when anyone cited Nate Silver here before the election, he was always attacked. Unfortunately for the country, he was right.

[StevieM]

7. Well, I did the calculations and she is actually only up by 1.95 percent.

If she had gotten up by another half a point then that would have probably meant 1 point in the swing states, like PA, WI, MI and FL.

So I think we need to win by 2.5 points nationally in order to win.

Then again, a different Republican would have done better with Latinos. And for the record, the exit polls got the Latino numbers very wrong. It's pretty clear that HRC did much better than Obama with that group, even if only with that group.

But the damage that Trump did with Hispanics may be permanent for the GOP, just like Pete Wilson's damage was permanent in California.

[Tiggeroshii]

9. Good point!

Definitely hope you are right!

[pnwmom]

10. Except neither Nathan Silver nor anyone else could predict

how many voters would find themselves purged off registration lists, or their ID's not accepted, or their ballots marked as "spoiled" etc.

[StevieM]

12. Excellent point. I think that we have to simply factor that in to our numbers.

Maybe Obama can work on getting poor people photo IDs in his post-presidency.

[Cha]

13. Or their ballots not mailed out?

Was that one too?.. I seem to remember..

[pnwmom]

14. Right -- I remember that especially in Florida. n/t

[Hekate]

6. KnR

[Coyotl]

8. Not quite yet, unless you use a rounding error.. 48.165% vs. 46.219%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=19

We are still a few votes shy of a 2% margin, about 75,000 short. If CA really still has 300,000 to report, it could happen tomorrow when the CA county deadline happens.

Right now, the lead is a few thousand short of the sum of ALL Trump votes in 12 states combined. Tomorrow it will end with all the Trump votes in 12 states and DC equaling less than Clinton's lead. In those 12 states and DC, Hillary wins the popular vote by over 200,000 votes.

[world wide wally]

11. If I ever hear the phrase "one man, one vote" in reference to America again,

i am going to hit something