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TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
Tue Dec 6, 2016, 06:12 PM Dec 2016

There's no shading it, Harris County (Texas) went undeniably blue

Harris County, Texas, home to Houston, has a population greater than 25 states. It also went solidly to Hillary Clinton. She won the county by more than 160,000 votes. Obama won the county in 2012 by 971. And it wasn't just Cliinton who won.

Red state, indeed. She won by similar margins in the other large cities in TX and in the Valley.

Ironically, perhaps, it was one of the few bright spots in this election. To put it in perspective, Hillary won Harris County by more votes than Trump won PA, WI, and MI *combined*.

I'm posting this in part because we as a group tend to talk about blue states and red states and often forget that every state is purple to one degree or another, leading to some rather dodgy assumptions. Turnout won Harris County and should be our primary focus moving forward.

From the Texas Tribune:

The blue wave was apparent up and down the ballot on a banner night for the county's Democrats.

They swept up every single countywide seat, including the district attorney and sheriff’s offices. They flipped a Texas House district in Pasadena. And with a presidential fight at the top of the ticket, Democrats shored up their lead in the fight for the typically purple county with Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by more than 160,000 votes — up from the 971 votes with which Obama took the county in 2012.


Source: https://www.texastribune.org/2016/11/11/harris-county-turned-blue/

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
There's no shading it, Harris County (Texas) went undeniably blue (Original Post) TwilightZone Dec 2016 OP
Congrats to the lovely blue oasis. riversedge Dec 2016 #1
We have a few.... TwilightZone Dec 2016 #8
Don't forget El Paso Rstrstx Dec 2016 #10
Agreed. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #15
I was in the Harris County voter protection war room on election night Gothmog Dec 2016 #2
Thank you. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #3
Harris County elections are run by a tea party nut case named Stan Stannart Gothmog Dec 2016 #5
And Dan Patrick's kid lost his judgeship. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #7
Hillary did much better than Obama in TX (in 2012) in general. LisaL Dec 2016 #4
No, but it's a start. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #6
This is great progress RonniePudding Dec 2016 #9
Perhaps the southern and northern parts of the state need to divorce Rstrstx Dec 2016 #11
Not sure where that map came from, but it's not accurate. Dallas, for one, was blue. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #13
It's from redraw the map Rstrstx Dec 2016 #18
Ah. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #19
Most states are going to have red suburbs surrounding the cities Rstrstx Dec 2016 #20
Obama took almost all the TX urban areas in both 2008 and 2012. Paladin Dec 2016 #12
Um, that's pretty much the entire point of this post. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #14
I had 2 sets of GOP canvasers knock on my door and I live in one of the more liberal areas... uponit7771 Dec 2016 #16
Better turnout in the other already-blue and purple areas might be easier. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #17
This really points to a problem with the electoral college. yardwork Dec 2016 #21
Blue for Hillary! Thank you, TwilightZone.. which Cha Dec 2016 #22
lol, no kidding. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #23
lol Gonna be long ass one.. Cha Dec 2016 #24

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
3. Thank you.
Tue Dec 6, 2016, 07:03 PM
Dec 2016

Thanks for playing an active part in the process.

I think just about anyone who can should volunteer on election night at least once, in part because it would blow some of our silly misconceptions about how things really operate into orbit.

Gothmog

(154,595 posts)
5. Harris County elections are run by a tea party nut case named Stan Stannart
Tue Dec 6, 2016, 07:10 PM
Dec 2016

I help trained over 200 poll watchers for Harris county. We had poll watchers at each of the early voting locations and then had poll watchers visit most of the GOP controlled election sites under the management of bad judges. There was a great deal of voter suppression by Stan and his goons.

One of the key victories was Kim Ogg as DA. It has been 36 years since Harris County had a democrat as District Attorney. Kim is already getting involved in the broken bail system in Harris County

LisaL

(46,608 posts)
4. Hillary did much better than Obama in TX (in 2012) in general.
Tue Dec 6, 2016, 07:03 PM
Dec 2016

Of course it's still was nowhere near enough to win TX.

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
6. No, but it's a start.
Tue Dec 6, 2016, 07:12 PM
Dec 2016

The big problem here is turnout. Latino turnout, in particular, lags the national average.

I think we have the numbers statewide. We certainly will in another few years, if not now. If we could increase turnout to around the national average, it would be highly competitive overall. Ironically, that's why Harris County was such a big win, as I noted.

Of course, the underlying problem is Tom Delay-era gerrymandering, which makes the local/state races exceedingly difficult. Austin is in 5 or 6 Congressional districts. I think San Antonio is in 7. Kind of hard to make gains when Dems in a wide area are crammed into 1 district out of 6 or 7.

Not that we won't try.

We really, really, really need to somehow gain control by 2020, the next redistricting year.

 

RonniePudding

(889 posts)
9. This is great progress
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 03:34 AM
Dec 2016

Given all the doom and gloom of the election results this is a nice bit of news. Democrats need to work to expand the map.

Rstrstx

(1,568 posts)
11. Perhaps the southern and northern parts of the state need to divorce
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 04:15 AM
Dec 2016

Clinton won the southland by nearly 400,000 votes with little coordination, it would have not been remotely close. Dallas County is the only blue county north of this line. In 2012 Obama would have eked out a win in this area by maybe a tenth of that amount. It would be even higher than 400k but a number of counties towards the northern edges had large +R totals.



You could move that line a couple of counties north to include the redder suburbs of Austin and Houston (including hyper-red Montgomery County) and she still would have won with 100k or so votes to spare.

The one county I'm disappointed in is Hays (San Marcos), there were an insane number of Bernie yard signs there around the university in the spring and it should flip by the next election. Also Nueces County (Corpus Christi) should turn soon. And it's nice to see the Dems pick up a true suburban county (Fort Bend).

While I would love to see the state split like this it's just a pipe dream. If anything it's yet another argument why the electoral college needs to go.

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
13. Not sure where that map came from, but it's not accurate. Dallas, for one, was blue.
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 09:28 AM
Dec 2016

And there's too much blue in the southern part of the state. Unfortunately, about half the counties shown in blue (or neutral) are actually red, some of them quite so. Hudspeth County, for example, just to the east of El Paso, went 57/37 Trump. Aransas County, just NE of Corpus Christi, went 73/23 Trump. Definitely not blue.

Here's a better map:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas

Rstrstx

(1,568 posts)
18. It's from redraw the map
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 02:14 PM
Dec 2016

It lets you shift state lines around to determine who would win a theoretical state if you redrew the boundaries.

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
19. Ah.
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 02:19 PM
Dec 2016

It's not terribly realistic since it includes some very red areas as part of its mythical blue TX. With the exception of the RGV, everything else is pretty much an island oasis. I suppose we could make Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, and Houston island nation-states or something.

Rstrstx

(1,568 posts)
20. Most states are going to have red suburbs surrounding the cities
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 02:48 PM
Dec 2016

If you take an extreme case like Illinois, Cook County is the only thing preventing it from being a red state (that's a big "but" though). Nevada is turning into something similar with Vegas.

Since it's just for fun and games, there is a way to split Texas in half that keeps Dallas and other urban counties in the +D part and most (but not all) of the +R suburbs and places like Waco in a separate state. It would look a bit awkward - like a turkey or some sort of bird - but would have been +D by a half-million votes


Paladin

(28,778 posts)
12. Obama took almost all the TX urban areas in both 2008 and 2012.
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 07:28 AM
Dec 2016

We Texans keep telling the rest of you how things are clearly trending in our state---to no avail whatsoever. Now that we're all residents of Trump Land, maybe you'll lay off the Texas-bashing and pay closer attention.

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
14. Um, that's pretty much the entire point of this post.
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 09:39 AM
Dec 2016

Obama barely won Harris County in 2012 (971 votes). Hillary won it easily.

Before you accuse "the rest of you" of Texas-bashing, perhaps you should read the post you're responding to. I quite clearly note that I'm posting this because the whole red state/blue state stuff is nonsense, and Texas is a perfect example of why. We're on the same side.

uponit7771

(91,770 posts)
16. I had 2 sets of GOP canvasers knock on my door and I live in one of the more liberal areas...
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 11:27 AM
Dec 2016

I pray to God the DNC would get their shit together here !!!

Texas can be flipped if the economic message is taken to the western part of the state if not just for the margins !!!

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
17. Better turnout in the other already-blue and purple areas might be easier.
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 11:31 AM
Dec 2016

Hillary won Dallas and Houston big largely because they were outliers - the turnout there was much better than in most other blue areas in the state. If we could increase and maintain similar turnout in the other areas, we'd be much closer to swinging the state. We basically have to outvote the red areas and they are, unfortunately, only getting redder.

So, yeah, I agree - organization is going to be key.

yardwork

(64,414 posts)
21. This really points to a problem with the electoral college.
Wed Dec 7, 2016, 06:33 PM
Dec 2016

Metropolitan areas that are larger than entire states should count as much as those states in our voting system.

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