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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"Views about race mattered more in electing Trump than in electing Obama" (WaPo)
A common refrain in the past month has been "how could they be racist if they voted for Obama?" In this Washington Post article, Michael Tesler shows that white voter preferences in 2016 were in fact more strongly correlated with racial resentment than in either 2012 or 2008. An excerpt of his analysis is as follows:
But the most important factor was surely Trump. Obama polarized public opinion by racial attitudes primarily because of who he was, not because of what he said or did. Daniel Gillions new book shows that Obama spoke about race less than recent Democratic presidents and was criticized by black leaders and intellectuals for refusing to push for race-specific policies.
In stark contrast, Donald Trump repeatedly went where prior Republican presidential candidates were unwilling to go: making explicit appeals to racial resentment, religious intolerance, and white identity. So much so, in fact, that more than half of Americans consistently said that the term racist described Donald Trump in YouGov/Economist surveys conducted during the fall campaign.
Donald Trumps racially divisive campaign inevitably made racial attitudes more important in the general election than if he had not been the Republican nominee. I showed earlier that racial attitudes were stronger predictors of whites preferences for Trump or Clinton than they were in hypothetical matchups between Clinton and Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.
Much like Obama before him, Trump simply seems to make racial attitudes matter more in public opinion. That Trump effect, combined with eight years of racialized politics under President Obama, means that racial attitudes are now more closely aligned with white Americans partisan preferences than they have been at any time in the history of polling.
In stark contrast, Donald Trump repeatedly went where prior Republican presidential candidates were unwilling to go: making explicit appeals to racial resentment, religious intolerance, and white identity. So much so, in fact, that more than half of Americans consistently said that the term racist described Donald Trump in YouGov/Economist surveys conducted during the fall campaign.
Donald Trumps racially divisive campaign inevitably made racial attitudes more important in the general election than if he had not been the Republican nominee. I showed earlier that racial attitudes were stronger predictors of whites preferences for Trump or Clinton than they were in hypothetical matchups between Clinton and Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.
Much like Obama before him, Trump simply seems to make racial attitudes matter more in public opinion. That Trump effect, combined with eight years of racialized politics under President Obama, means that racial attitudes are now more closely aligned with white Americans partisan preferences than they have been at any time in the history of polling.
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"Views about race mattered more in electing Trump than in electing Obama" (WaPo) (Original Post)
JustinL
Dec 2016
OP
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)1. "how could they be racist if they voted for Obama"
That is one of the most ignorant concepts I have seen.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)2. Face the facts,
we just had the White Guy's last stand election. For more than a year,we heard this statement,"this ain't the Country that I grew up in and I want it back",we can thank Fox News for framing that Narrative. If one thinks it was something else,be my guess and tell all of us what the real issue was.